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There
is a perverse sense of relief among the most fierce defenders of Israel and
administration critics: Had the Iran deal been remotely reasonable, it would be
hard to defeat. Now, it is not only possible but likely.
Full examination of the deal will unfold in
the next few days. However, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin
Netanyahu put it succinctly: “I would like to say here and now –
when you are willing to make an agreement at any cost, this is the result.” And
it is not pretty.
First, while Secretary of State John Kerry
denies it, the deal acquiesces to Iran becoming a
nuclear power: “At the heart of the agreement between Iran and the
six powers—the U.S., U.K., Russia, China, Germany and France—is Tehran’s
acceptance of strict limits on its nuclear activities for 10 years. These are
supposed to ensure that the country remains a minimum of 12 months away from
amassing enough nuclear fuel for a bomb. After the 10-year period, those
constraints will ease in the subsequent five years.”
Despite warnings from members of their own
party that a deal containing lifting of a conventional arms embargo would
be a non-starter, the deal reportedly does just that in five years, according to the Russians.
Other news reports suggest that the embargo on Iran’s illicit missile program will lift in eight years.
As
for phased sanctions relief, Iran got its windfall. According to news reports,
“The moment Tehran receives sanctions relief— including access to an estimated
$100 billion in frozen assets overseas— will be on ‘implementation day,’ as one
senior administration official put it on Tuesday morning in Vienna. That date
is not set, and is entirely reliant on the pace of Iran’s initial haste in
preparing for life under the deal.” That will put money in Tehran’s pockets to
increase support for Syria (which understandably celebrated the deal),
Hezbollah and Hamas.
As we knew from the framework, Iran gets to
keep 6,000 centrifuges and its enrichment plant in a mountain (Fordow).
And on it goes.
Sens. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) and Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) were quick to denounce
the entire exercise as a grievous, dangerous mistake. Cottonpredicted a
congressional “rebellion,” observing: “[I] just can’t imagine any United States
Senator or Congressman voting to give Iran $100 billion or more in a signing
bonus, and at the same time even opening the prospect of lifting the arms
embargo.” Graham warned, “It’s
incredibly dangerous for our national security, and it’s akin to declaring war
on Sunni Arabs and Israel by the P5+1 because it ensures their primary
antagonist Iran will become a nuclear power and allows them to rearm
conventionally.”
House Speaker John Boehner released a
statement that read:
His
‘deal’ will hand Iran billions in sanctions relief while giving it time and
space to reach a break-out threshold to produce a nuclear bomb – all without
cheating. Instead of making the world less dangerous, this ‘deal’ will
only embolden Iran – the world’s largest sponsor of terror – by helping
stabilize and legitimize its regime as it spreads even more violence and
instability in the region. Instead of stopping the spread of nuclear
weapons in the Middle East, this deal is likely to fuel a nuclear arms race
around the world.
The
House of Representatives will review every detail of this agreement very
closely, but I won’t support any agreement that jeopardizes the safety of the
American people and all who value freedom and security. This isn’t about
Republicans versus Democrats. It’s about right and wrong. And we
will fight a bad deal that is wrong for our national security and wrong for our
country.
With a deal this bad, one that caved not only
on nuclear-related issues but also on conventional arms restrictions, the
chances that neutral, respected figures will oppose the deal goes up. Look for
former officials and outside nuclear experts to weigh in with a host of
objections. For sober Democrats in the Senate who signed their name to multiple
statements demanding terms far stricter than the ones we now are presented
with, a no vote becomes much more likely.
Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) was among the first
presidential contenders to weigh in. “I expect that a significant majority in
Congress will share my skepticism of this agreement and vote it down. Failure
by the President to obtain congressional support will tell the Iranians and the
world that this is Barack Obama’s deal, not an agreement with lasting support
from the United States,” he said. “It will then be left to the next President
to return us to a position of American strength and re-impose sanctions on this
despicable regime until it is truly willing to abandon its nuclear ambitions
and is no longer a threat to international security.” That will be the argument
on which the 2016 election may turn.
Consider Hillary Clinton’s position. She dare
not oppose the deal and yet her support for a foolish deal may be the death
knell of her presidential ambitions. Her vows, we can predict, to make sure
that the deal is strictly enforced won’t gain her any admirers — not when the
strict terms of the deals give Iran essentially all it ever hoped for.
No
wonder the president’s strategy does not even contemplate obtaining a majority
of approval. His sole task and that of the legion of lapdogs will be to hold
down the disapproval numbers in the Senate and House so that a veto of a
disapproval measure cannot be overridden.
Netanyahu summed up the deal Congress will
have to consider: “Far-reaching concessions have been made in all areas that
were supposed to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons capability. In
addition, Iran will receive hundreds of billions of dollars with which it can
fuel its terror machine and its expansion and aggression throughout the Middle
East and across the globe.” The president by giving away far more than his
harshest critics ever dreamed made their job to defeat the deal a whole lot
easier. And if the deal is not defeated but a Republican is elected, pulling
the plug on the deal will be that much easier.
UPDATE: In a mature and
strong statement, Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker blasts the deal:
“The nuclear agreement with Iran will be remembered as one of America’s
worst diplomatic failures. The deal allows Tehran to dismantle U.S. and
international sanctions without dismantling its illicit nuclear
infrastructure—giving Iran’s nuclear weapons capability an American stamp of
approval. In crafting this agreement, President Obama has abandoned the
bipartisan principles that have guided our nonproliferation policy and kept the
world safe from nuclear danger for decades. Instead of making the world safer,
this deal will likely lead to a nuclear arms race in the world’s most dangerous
region. What’s worse, the deal rewards the world’s leading state sponsor of
terrorism with a massive financial windfall, which Iran will use to further
threaten our interests and key allies, especially Israel.”
