By BRET
STEPHENS
What diplomats call the Joint Comprehensive Plan of
Action—known to the rest of us as the Disastrous Iran Deal—was agreed in Vienna
a year ago this week. Now comes a status update, courtesy of our friends at the Bundesamt für Verfassungsschutz, or BfV.
In its fascinating 2015 annual report, published late last month, the
German domestic intelligence service reports a “particularly strong increase”
in the number of Salafists, describes the reach of Russian and Chinese
espionage efforts in Germany, and notes a growing number of right-wing
extremists.
Then there’s this:
“The illegal proliferation-sensitive procurement
activities [by Iran] in Germany registered by the Federal Office for the
Protection of the Constitution persisted in 2015 at what is, even by
international standards, a quantitatively high level. This holds true in
particular with regard to items which can be used in the field of nuclear
technology.”
The report also notes “a further increase in the already
considerable procurement efforts in connection with Iran’s ambitious missile
technology program which could among other things potentially serve to deliver
nuclear weapons. Against this backdrop it is safe to expect that Iran will
continue its intensive procurement activities in Germany using clandestine
methods to achieve its objectives.”
The BfV report arrived days before Germany arrested a Pakistani national,
identified asSyed Mustufa H., accused of spying for Iran. It
also corroborates another German intelligence report, this one from the intelligence
service of North Rhine-Westphalia, that Iran’s nuclear procurement efforts have
increased dramatically in recent years, from 48 known attempts in 2010 to 141
in 2015. Seven other German states have reported similarIranian procurement efforts. This
violates Iran’s explicit commitment to go through an official “procurement
channel” to purchase nuclear- and missile-related materials.
All this was enough to prompt Angela Merkel to
warn the Bundestag last week that Iran “continued to develop its rocket program
in conflict with relevant provisions of the U.N. Security Council.” Don’t
expect German sanctions, but at least the chancellor is living in the reality
zone.
As for the Obama administration, not so much. For the
past year it has developed a narrative—spoon-fed to the reporters and editorial
writers Ben
Rhodes publicly mocks as
dopes and dupes—that Iran has met all its obligations under the deal, and now
deserves extra cookies in the form of access to U.S. dollars, Boeing jets, U.S. purchases of
Iranian heavy water (thereby subsidizing its nuclear program), and other
concessions the administration last year promised Congress it would never
grant.
“We still have sanctions on Iran for its violations of
human rights, for its support for terrorism, and for its ballistic-missile
program, and we will continue to enforce those sanctions vigorously,” Mr. Obama said in
January. Whatever.
The administration is now weighing whether
to support Iran’s membership in the World Trade Organization. That would
neutralize a future president’s ability to impose sanctions on Iran, since WTO
rules would allow Tehran to sue Washington for interfering with trade. The
administration has also pushed the Financial Action Task Force, an
international body that enforces anti-money-laundering standards, to ease
pressure on Iran, which FATF did last
month by suspending some restrictions for the next year.
And then there’s the Boeing deal to sell $17.6 billion
worth of jets to Iran, which congressional Republicans led by Illinois’s Pete
Roskam are
trying to stop. Iran uses its civilian fleet to ferry weapons and fighters to
its terrorist clients in Syria and Lebanon.
“The administration is trying to lock in the Iran deal
and prevent a future president from doing anything, including pushing back on
Iran’s malign behavior,” says the Foundation for Defense of Democracies’ Mark
Dubowitz, who knows more about Iran sanctions than anyone in Washington.
“Instead of curbing Iran’s worst behavior, the administration effectively
facilitates it.”
One last detail: In June, the Journal’s Jay Solomon reported that the International Atomic
Energy Agency had discovered “traces of man-made uranium” at Iran’s military
facility at Parchin. The agency reported this finding in a footnote to a report
in December, but the administration made no comment then and now dismisses it
as old news. The IAEA is no longer allowed to inspect Parchin, or any other
military installation, under the deal.
So let’s recap. Mr. Obama says Iran is honoring the
nuclear deal, but German intelligence tells us Tehran is violating it more
aggressively than ever. He promised “snapback” sanctions in the event of such
violations, but the U.S. is operating as Iran’s trade-promotion agent. He
promised “unprecedented” inspections, but we’re not permitted to inspect sites
where uranium was found. He promised an eight-year ban on Iran’s testing of
ballistic missiles, but Tehran violated that ban immediately and repeatedly
with only mild pushback from the West. He promised that the nuclear deal was
not about “normalizing” relations with a rogue regime. But he wants it in the
WTO.
Is Mr. Obama rationalizing a failed agreement or did he
mean to mislead the American public? Either way, truth is catching up with the
Iran deal.
