Given Iran's tendency to enrich uranium in secret, it may achieve
nuclear breakout capability well before ten years from now.
Nor should we forget that
current polls place Mahmoud Ahmadinejad close behind Hassan Rouhani for the
2017 presidential election.
An exhaustive list of
genocidal threats by major Iranian politicians between 2009 and 2012 has been
compiled by the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs. The latest threat was made
on March 1 of this year.
The Islamic State and other
terrorists do not represent an idealized version of normative Islam, and a
number of Muslims may not even support them. But their scriptural and
historical roots frankly have plenty of precedent, and far from minimal
support.
Shi'i Islam is a very
different belief system from Sunni Islam. Iran today resembles a medieval
European state.
When Israeli Prime Minister
Binyamin Netanyahu spoke from the podium of the U.S. Congress to warn of the
dangers of a nuclear-armed Iran, the clock was already ticking towards March
31. That is the deadline for a final agreement between the P5+1 (the five
permanent UN Security Council members plus Germany) and the Iranian regime on
limits to Iran's nuclear program, in return for the lifting of sanctions
currently imposed on Iran.
By
now, everyone has read page upon page of commentary on what the likely
consequences of such a deal may be, with a preponderance of analysts agreeing
that President Barack Obama's drive to secure a resolution is likely to put
Iran on a clear course to nuclear weapons capability after about ten years.
Given Iran's tendency to enrich uranium in secret, they may achieve
nuclear breakout capability well before ten years from now.
Netanyahu's
mission was to warn Congress about the possible ramifications of these
negotiations not only for Israel, but for the entire free world. Obama's
vehement opposition to Netanyahu's speech was a desperate sign of how far his
political advantage now takes precedence over any concern for the danger that
Iranian nuclear weapons will pose to Israel, the Middle East, Europe and even
America.
Over
the years, Iran's threats to destroy Israel, to "wipe it" from the
pages of history or to flattenTel Aviv and Haifa, have been direct
and unambiguous. This last threat was made on March 1 of this year.
Joshua
Teitelbaum and Michael Segall, at the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs, have
compiled an exhaustive list of genocidal threats by major Iranian politicians between 2009 and 2012. It is highly
unlikely that Barack Obama, John Kerry, or anyone else in the U.S.
Administration or the State Department have ever read it, or, if they have read
it, that they care.
What
is worrying more than anything is that the U.S. president and his allies seem
not to understand, even a little, the country now working to build nuclear
weapons: its culture, its religion, and its apocalyptic obsessions.
Obama
seems to think the Iranian leadership is made up of pragmatic politicians who
favor an almost areligious approach to world affairs. This calculation seems
based on a wished-for interpretation, which is almost secularist, of a
religiously-defined and faith-inspired culture.
Let
us start with a recent statement by President Obama, made during a press
conference with German Chancellor Angela Merkel on February 9, 2015. Obama argued that
a nuclear deal with Iran was possible because "according to their Supreme
Leader, it would be contrary to their faith to obtain a nuclear weapon."
Sadly, this comment reveals that he is as ignorant of Islamic scripture as he
is of Islamic history.
Obama
has gone out of his way to say that Islamic terrorism has nothing to do with
Islam. Heinsisted, at a White House summit later in
February, that "We are not at war with Islam. We are at war with people
who have perverted Islam." But he failed to explain how reams of accurate
quotes from centuries of theory and practice of the Qur'an, the hadith (traditions) and works of Islamic
jurisprudence, could constitute "perversion."
The
Islamic State and other terrorists do not represent an idealized vision of normative Islam, and the
majority of Muslims may not even support them. But its scriptural and
historical roots frankly have plenty of precedent, and far from minimal
support.
If we
speak about the faith of the Iranian people, we are ignoring a few small
minorities. Shi'i Islam is a very different belief system from Sunni Islam.
Regrettably, it seems that neither Obama nor his advisors knows a thing about
the theology, history, rituals and mechanisms of Shi'ism, its clerical system,
its seminaries, its sects, or its modern manifestations. Many of these matters
are very relevant to the question of whether Iran would use nuclear weapons
once it had them.
Even
if it is unreasonable to expect that the American president embark on a study
of the intricate metaphysics of Ishraqi philosophy, Babi apocalypticism,
or Usuli ejtehad,
at least he has at his disposal universities full of scholars, who could bring
him up to speed on the most basic elements in modern post-revolutionary Iranian
beliefs. The problem is that he seems not to want to listen to people who might
tell him what he does not know, in case he might disagree with it. This wilful
blindness calls into question the wisdom of enabling Iran to be a nuclear-armed
country -- ever. Unfortunately, a nuclear-armed Iran is something Obama and his
supporters apparently intend to make a reality.
Professor
Bernard Lewis, in 2009, said
on the question of
Iran's nuclear weapon, "For most of the Iranian leadership MAD would work
as a deterrent, but for Ahmadinejad and his group with their apocalyptic
mindset, mutually assured destruction is not a deterrent, it's an
inducement."
True,
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is no longer the Iranian president, and the current
president, Hassan Rouhani is often deemed by the west a pragmatist and a reformer,
but the apocalyptic mindset is not something unique to Ahmadinejad and his
followers. It has deep
roots in Shi'ite belief. That -- plus raw superstition, a large measure of
religious fanaticism, and a cult of martyrdom -- makes Iran the most dangerous
country on the planet today.
Put
another way, if someone boasts of uncontrollable urges to slaughter everyone he
considers his enemy, is it really advisable to buy him an assault rifle and a
few of boxes of bullets? Imagine what he could do with a batch of
nuclear-tipped intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs).
According to Jane's Defence Weekly, Iran's
longest-range rockets, while "theoretically capable of ICBM ranges,"
cannot be classified as ICBMs. But the United States Institute of Peace believesIran already has the largest and most
diverse ICBM arsenal in the region, built from foreign imports, notably from
North Korea. In the meantime, the regime has long-range missiles capable of
delivering nuclear payloads to Israeli cities. On 8 March 2015, at a ceremony
in Tehran, Iranunveiled its
new Soumar long-range cruise missile. Their Qadr and Qiam missiles can already
reach Israel.
The
expectation of the coming of a messianic figure called the Mahdi, peripheral in
Sunni Islam, has always been a key feature of Shi'ism. In this belief, the war
that will bring on the "End of Days" or the Apocalypse, will bring to
earth the Mahdi, the "Hidden Imam," a descendent of Mohammad. Then
there will be universal peace.
The
promise of mankind's liberation through a semi-divine saviour has been at the
heart of the Shi'ite faith -- the faith that Obama thinks will not contemplate
the use of nuclear arms. The Shi'a identify the Mahdi as the last of their
twelve holy Imams, a young boy who disappeared from human sight in the year 260
(872 C.E.), lives in a state of occultation as the Hidden Imam in the celestial
cities of Hurqalya and Jabulsa, and will return to earth with a sword to fight
a last battle against the forces of unbelief. The form of Shi'ism that is
dominant in Iran is the majority Twelver sect, which means that the living
presence of the last Imam, and the promise of his return to establish a world
of peace and justice, runs through the veins of all believers.
Since
the Islamic Revolution of 1979, and especially during the presidency of Mahmoud
Ahmadinejad (2005 to 2013), apocalyptic notions and supernatural influence on
political decisions have challenged those who seek a rational and pragmatic
approach to state affairs. Perhaps the leading scholar of this trend is Dr. Mehdi Khalaji, a senior fellow at the
Washington Institute for Near East Policy. Khalaji trained in Islamic theology
and philosophy for fourteen years in the seminaries in Qom, then in Tehran and
Paris. He is now an American citizen who understands the Iranian regime as an
insider. His study, "Apocalyptic Politics: On the Rationality of Iranian
Policy," should be compulsory reading for anyone who thinks
Iran can be approached and negotiated with as a rational partner.[1] Although he was writing about the
Ahmadinejad period, his monograph shows substantial evidence that irrationality
was not and is not restricted to one man's delusions. According to Ali Rahnema,
"... the president's [Ahmadinejad's] behaviour and utterance and those of
his proponents were neither exceptional nor isolated cases in historical
terms."[2]
"The
Islamic government [of Iran]," Khalaji writes, "has turned to an
apocalyptic vision that brings hope to the oppressed and portrays itself as an
antidote to immoral and irreligious behaviour." (p. vii) Perhaps this is
merely religious superstition that has no impact on political behaviour. But
Khalaji stresses several times that Ahmadinejad was reputed to belong to a
secret society that believes in the imminent return of the Hidden Imam. He
informs us that "It is very difficult to know precisely what this secret
society believes, but some rumours suggest it is eager to control the country's
nuclear program."[3] Later, Khalaji points out that the
president "juxtaposes the preparation for the return of the Hidden Imam
with the collapse of the state of Israel" (p. 24), and chillingly adds
that "Ahmadinejad has stated that the Iranian nuclear program is running
under the control of the Hidden Imam" (p. 26). Even if the former
president is a crank, millions upon millions of Iranian Shi'is have an intense
belief in the power of the Mahdi over human affairs.
Between
1997 and 2005, the president of Iran was Mohammad Khatami, since considered as
a key figure in the reform movement that sought to replace clerical rule with a
more secular system. Although a cleric himself, Khatami opposed Khomeini's
theory of rule by religious guardians (velayat-e faqih). Yet even in the
years of his second term, 2001-2005, an enhanced yearning for the return of the
Twelfth Imam was advocated through selective mosque networks and Islamic
associations. That this happened under a genuine reformist, who wanted to bring
about a true democracy in Iran, is of considerable importance in any analysis
of what may happen under Iran's current president, Hassan Rouhani.
Rouhani
has been widely interpreted as a reformer, but the increase in hangings,
strictures on veiling, and mistreatment of the Baha'i community under his
presidency suggest he is a very different man from Khatami or to those
belonging to the suppressed "Green Movement". Khamenei's support for
Rouhani is itself indicative of his adherence to traditional norms. There is no
sign of a let-up in superstition or the apocalyptic vision under his
presidency.
An
important sign of the continuing appeal of extreme religious thought and
behavior may be found in the growth of a major cult based around what is now a
huge mosque complex on the outskirts of Qom, where the more rationalist
seminary is located.
Modern
Iranian messianism is no longer the passive style of centuries past, but
activist, and can lead to military action.
Religiosity
and superstition played an equally important part in the Iranian military
response to Iraq during the 1980-1988 war between the two countries, during
which some 750,000 Iraniansdied
and tens of thousands more were badly wounded.
Throughout
the war, religious themes predominated, from calls to jihad, to imitating the
events of Karbala, when the Imam Husayn was martyred ("Every day is
Ashura, every land is Karbala"). All dead soldiers were lauded as martyrs;
even children were sent into battle carrying plastic silver "keys to
paradise." The idea was that by fighting the Iraqi army in a war between
truth and falsehood, Iranians would hasten the return of the Hidden Imam.[4]
With
this sort of thinking -- the willingness to sacrifice, whatever the cost -- it
is critical to remember the words of former "reformist" president
Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani in 2000:
"If one day, a very important day, of course, the Islamic
World will also be equipped with the weapons available to Israel now, the
imperialist strategy will reach an impasse, because the employment of even one
atomic bomb inside Israel will wipe it off the face of the earth, but [such a
bomb] would only do damage to the Islamic World. It is not unreasonable to
consider this possibility."[5]
Militant
messianism is as dangerous as ever today. Expectation of the Hidden Imam and
the activist struggle to bring about his advent are not only matters of pious
belief. According to Mehdi Khalaji, the former Iranian cleric, apocalyptic
ideas have a strong following within the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps
(IRGC) and the Basij militia. He points out that Ahmadinejad's
followers, who believe in the coming apocalypse, "are linked to an
influential group of the IRGC that has responsibility over Iran's nuclear
program."[6] There is no reason to suppose that
this group within the IRGC has abandoned its apocalyptic beliefs, or the link
between them and control of nuclear arms.
Iran
today resembles a medieval European state more than a modern secularized
democracy. The Muharram processions, when men march through
city streets naked to the waist while whipping themselves with chains and razor
blades, bring to mind the ritual marches of medievalFlagellants.
Like the Flagellants, the Shi'a of Iran expect the imminent end of the world.
In
a country sunk in economic misery, subject to a harsh system of government and
justice, where young people are desperate to flee abroad to seek normal lives,
where nothing works, where corruption is rife at all levels, not least among
the "spiritual," it is not surprising that so many seek escape
through superstition, pilgrimage, writing letters to a man who died centuries
ago, and connecting their Saviour's return to military might and the conquest
of the world.
The
Iranian regime is changeable, with frequent shifts in direction and personnel.
President Obama treats the current Iranian president, Hassan Rouhani, as a
pragmatist with whom he can do a deal. But Rouhani (who remains a hardliner) is
not the most powerful man in the country. Greater power resides in the hands of
the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Even that may be about to change,
long before Rouhani comes to the end of his term. On the March 5, theJerusalem
Post reported that
Khamenei may be close to death. There have been rumours about his cancer for
several years, but now it seems he does not have long to live. We do not know
what sort of man will replace him, but it is unlikely to be an entirely
rational figure, and it could turn out to be a cleric who espouses at least
some of the superstitious beliefs outlined above. Nor should we forget that current polls place
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad close behind Hassan Rouhani for the 2017 presidential
elections. If Iran has nuclear weapons during a third Ahmadinejad term, the
risks for humanity will be immense.
Can
the world afford to give the green light for building nuclear weapons to a
country that is so unstable and so close to justifying the use of such weapons
by believing in the nearness of The Last Day?
Dr. Denis MacEoin has a PhD in Persian Studies (Cambridge 1979)
and has lectured in Arabic and Islamic Studies. He has contributed to the major
encyclopedias on Islam and Iran, the "Encyclopedia of Islam 2nd ed.",
"The Encyclopedia Iranica," and "The Oxford Encyclopedia of
Islam in the Modern World."
[1] Of
comparable importance are Ali Rahnema, Superstition as Ideology in
Iranian Politics from Majlesi to Ahmadinejad, Cambridge University Press,
2011, chapter 1; Abbas Amnanat,Apocalyptic Islam and Iranian Shi'ism, I
B Tauris, 2009, chapters 2 and 10; Idem, "The Resurgence of Apocalyptic in
Modern Islam," Encyclopedia of Apocalypticism, New York, 2000.
Also relevant are: David Cook, Contemporary Muslim Apoclayptic
Literature, N.Y. Syracuse University Press, 2005 and David Cook, Studies
in Muslim Apocalyptic, Princeton, The Darwin Press Inc., 2002, pp. 189-229
[2] Superstition
as Ideology in Iranian Politics from Majlesi to Ahmadinejad, Cambridge
University Press, 2011, p. x
[4] These
themes have been dealt with at length by Ardalan Rezamand in "Use of
Religious Doctrine and Symbolism in the Iran-Iraq War".
[5] Cited
by Joshua Teitelbaum and Michael Segall, The Iranian
Leadership's Continuing Declarations of Intent to Destroy Israel p.
7
