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| Andrey Piontkovski |
Translated from Russian using google translate from
https://piontk045.comv.info/material.php?id=652C24525859A
Andrey Piontkovsky: It is necessary to somewhat change the sequence of moves
After the “exercises” in Ryazan in September 1999, it became obvious to everyone except those who wanted to deceive themselves that a series of house explosions in Russia were organized by the de facto security officers who had seized power with the aim of blaming the Chechens, starting a war and victoriously immersing both Chechnya and Russia in their patriotic toilets.
More than 20 years later, the mature Putin and Patrushev set their sights on a much larger-scale performance - an epoch-making Victory over the West in the Fourth World War as revenge for the defeat of the USSR in the third (cold) War. The historical victory that has been cultivated for decades smoothly morphed into victory live.
The grievances of the “good Hitler” towards the West are much larger and more painful than simply the loss of certain zones of dominance. For centuries, the West has been perceived by Kremlin rulers as an existential threat to their power by the very fact of its existence as a possible historical alternative. Fascinated by the technological and consumer fruits of the West and greedily wanting to master (implement) them, our Horde khans - “modernizers” always with animal fear rejected the roots of Western civilization and its air - the hated air of Freedom and Human Dignity.
Putin and Patrushev were absolutely convinced themselves and convinced the entire ruling elite that they had a unique opportunity to replay world history with one throw of the dice and take revenge for the defeat of the USSR. “The Yankees will retreat to nuclear blackmail and surrender the Baltics,” the Kremlin sages believed. “Like Chamberlain surrendered Czechoslovakia, like Obama surrendered Syria, abandoning his own red lines, when no one even threatened him.”
“Get your belongings and get out,” the fat-faced deputy minister demanded from 30 NATO countries. “If you refuse, you will suffer catastrophes unprecedented in your thousand-year history,” the future Lord of the World threatened.
The chance to humiliate and trample the West with one clash of wills, showing its confusion, indecision and helplessness, despite all its colossal economic and military superiority, was so attractive and promised such dizzying geopolitical dividends that the under-Führer of the under-empire could not avoid the temptation and stubbornly walked towards his nuclear Austerlitz. Which turned into a conventional Waterloo.
The fate of the world was decided at the Battle of Gostomel in February 2022. If Kiev had fallen and, in the aura of his “victory,” Putin, menacingly waving his nuclear cannon, had appeared on the borders of the Baltics and Poland, then the West of the spring of 2022 could have wavered and the crazy plan of two Ps would have triumphed.
A lot has changed over the past year and a half. Ukraine, with its heroic feat of the 300 Spartans of the Free World, literally dragged the hedonistic West back into world History by the scruff of the neck. The United States finally responded to nuclear blackmail with dignity, explaining very clearly to Pu what would happen to him personally if he only reached for nuclear weapons. Pu himself never doubted the conventional superiority of the West. He completely lost World War IV, which he declared to the West, and now dreams of a ceasefire in Ukraine, which he could sell to the deep people as a fake “honorable draw.” But World War IV itself, declared to the West, did not end. Another ambitious scumbag appeared from behind the unlucky St. Petersburg hooligan.
The Islamofascist regime of Iranian religious fanatics and executioners, which has been cursing Satan No. 1 for half a century, has come to the same strategic conclusion as their Kremlin brothers in mind. To morally crush the weakening United States and throw it into the dustbin of world history, it is enough to demonstratively and with impunity defeat one of the United States’ allies. The Kremlin simply demanded the surrender of a dozen Eastern European NATO countries to them. The Ayatollahs have long dreamed of the destruction of Israel, Major non-NATO ally USA.
The terrorist attack of October 7, 2023, monstrous in its boundless cruelty, became the first step in a multi-step operation conceived by Tehran (with the interested complicity of Moscow) to finally resolve the Jewish question in the Middle East.
The atrocities ordered by the organizers and demonstratively broadcast live to the whole world had one goal - to make inevitable a ground operation by the Israeli army to destroy the infrastructure and personnel of Hamas.
When the army gets deeply bogged down in the hardest, long-term cleansing of the ruins and dungeons of Gaza, accompanied by heavy losses, the facilitators will unleash a 50,000-strong horde of Hezbollah thugs on the North of Israel. This simple plan was so obvious that it was thwarted the very next day, October 8, when the Leader of the Free World, the United States of America, finally woke up from a politically correct sleep.
Two aircraft carrier formations and very kind words from Biden, Blinken, and Austin are a convincing argument for Hezbollah and its handlers. Now they will limit itself to constant shelling and raids, without deciding on a large-scale invasion. Israel, thanks to its powerful ally, will have the opportunity to complete the cleansing of Gaza without being distracted by other serious challenges. It would seem a very favorable prospect for Israel.
Let us imagine, however, the final situation the day after this conditional victory. There were very large losses among Israeli military personnel; most likely, most of the hostages died; against the backdrop of the growing joint howl of Islamic fascists and Western liberals about the suffering of civilians in Gaza, an insoluble problem arises: what to do next with a million of these “civilians.” Especially when the Iranian mycelium of Islamist terror has remained untouched and left unpunished, continuously generating, financing and arming similar Hamas throughout the Middle East.
Are there other scenarios possible, more rosier for Israel, for the absolutely necessary physical destruction of Hamas? In our opinion, yes. Only the allies (Israel, the USA) need to understand that in the course of the total war they have declared, they have more urgent problems today than revenge on Hamas, and it is necessary to slightly change the sequence of moves.
But first, I would like to remind readers of the remarkable words of US Secretary of State Tony Blinken, which he said on October 12 regarding the nature of the allied relationship between the United States and Israel: "The message that I bring to Israel is this: You may be strong enough on your own to defend yourself – but as long as America exists, you will never, ever have to. We will always be there, by your side.”
Based on this message delivered by Blinken in Jerusalem, let me offer the allies an alternative scenario for a convincing Western Victory over their mortal enemies.
Hezbollah, which is preparing for a large-scale attack on Israel but is still hesitant, is dealt a withering blow by the power of two aircraft carrier formations of the United States and the Israeli Air Force. Hezbollah's military infrastructure and the fashionable mansions of its leadership in Beirut are being destroyed. What kind grandfather Biden threatened a certain “organization” on October 8 if it “messed around” is being realized.
So, according to all formal grounds, at the time of writing this text, Hezbollah had already “attacked.” In the end, it is the prerogative of the author of the warning to determine whether she has "poked" or not.
A just act of retaliation against Hezbollah terrorists for all the crimes they have already committed and are still preparing has independent political and military significance. But it is also an absolutely necessary precondition for the Allies' main operation, the air strike on Iran. Iran does not hide the fact that the huge missile arsenal it supplied to Hezbollah, aimed at Israel, is, among other things, a tool to deter the Jewish state from striking the Iranian nuclear complex.
Israel has long warned that it would carry out such a strike on its own if Iran came close to possessing nuclear weapons. The United States has also repeatedly stated that it does not rule out a military solution to the Iranian nuclear problem. And just recently, the Pentagon announced that, according to US military intelligence, the ayatollahs are two weeks away from receiving the first nuclear warhead. It is no longer possible to hesitate. Israel has always emphasized that, if necessary, it is independently capable of carrying out nuclear castration of Iran.
But now the city and the world are told very loudly that Israel must never, ever do this alone. America will always be there.
Moreover, in today's circumstances, the list of targets for air strike(s) should be significantly expanded. Israel can no longer cope alone. The Iranian military-political leadership, waging a war of physical destruction of Israel and the moral destruction of the United States, is worse than ISIS and must be mercilessly eliminated. Therefore, the list of targets, in addition to all facilities of Iran’s nuclear complex and missile industry, should also include decision-making centers (ayatollahs on the list, starting with the supreme one, the leadership of the IRGC, the army).
An outside observer of these dramatic events inside Iran, the Turkish-Azerbaijani army will immediately offer security guarantees to 30 million of its compatriots, who will greet it with delight as the liberating army. Erdogan and Aliyev will adjust their famous formula “One people – two countries” to “One people – three countries”.
The wonderful little state of Israel does not have territorial strategic depth. Therefore, every big war for him is a war of survival. In 1967, Israel launched a preemptive strike and won a brilliant victory. In 1973, he refrained from such a blow and put himself on the brink of disaster.
This time Israel has a powerful ally, much more determined in its support for Israel than in 1967 and 1973. He won't go into the catacombs of Gaza, but he's capable of much more. Moreover, Israel, like Ukraine, is today at the forefront of a world war, declared by the axis of absolute evil, primarily against the United States of America.
After two crushing, if you will, preventive strikes by the allies against Hezbollah and Iran, the delayed ground cleansing of Hamas, which overnight lost its sponsors and inspirers, will take place in a completely different political and psychological atmosphere. The losses of Israeli military personnel will be an order of magnitude less than expected today. And in response to the question of what to do next with Gaza, in the absence of Iranian Islamofascists, quite constructive answers may appear. Not only Gaza, but the entire Middle East will be able to unhindered continue its positive transformation in the spirit of the Abraham Accords.
The allies will still have to strike at Hezbollah and Iran. But delivering these two successive strikes today is much more effective from both a military and political point of view than after the IDF’s grueling expedition into the underground of Gaza.
Glory to Ukraine! Glory to Israel! Glory to the USA! To the victorious powers in World War IV, unleashed by the mortal enemies of the Free World.
Andrey Piontkovsky
