Part 1: The Future of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Lessons Learned from Pandemic Influenza
excerpts:
One recent study found that the SARS-CoV-2 viral load was highest at the time of symptom onset, suggesting that viral shedding may peak before symptoms occur, leading to substantial presymptomatic transmission
One recent study found that the SARS-CoV-2 viral load was highest at the time of symptom onset, suggesting that viral shedding may peak before symptoms occur, leading to substantial presymptomatic transmission
One way to quantify the transmissibility of a virus is to
determine the basic reproductive number (R0) for that virus. The R0 is the
average number of new infections that result from a single infected person in a
wholly susceptible population
..effective
reproductive number (RE), which is similar to the R0 but does not depend on
having a fully susceptible population (Delamater 2019). Immunity in the
population can effectively diminish or end an outbreak by driving RE below 1
First, the length of the pandemic will likely be 18 to 24
months,
...a vaccine will likely not be available until at least
sometime in 2021
