Thursday, April 23, 2020

Coronavirus Q&A: Predicting Pandemics

29:27 into the video  Marc Lipsitch: “Over 1500 people have contacted the authors of this paper and then gone to a website and put their names in saying I would like to be in such a trial and these are thoughtful educated people by and large who want to do something altruistic. So it is unconventional but I think potentially very promising. “

Vaccine testing
Phase 1 is for safety typically in the 10s of participants   
Phase 2 for immunogenicity   10s – 100s participants
Phase 3 for efficacy and is typically in the 1000s of participants

30:34  “So the idea would be to involve thousands but not follow them for efficacy, only for safety and immunogenicity which is quicker, and then do the challenge to evaluate efficacy and then obviously  you would need follow up to show the efficacy was true  also in other groups.”

38:20  Howard Bauchner: “Last question,  I just made you the pandemic tsar for the next year, and you have a blank check, well maybe not a blank check, although we already spent two trillion $, you have  a lot of money, Marc, what are the first three or four or five things you’d want to do? “
ML: “It’s a good question.  I would invent a time machine and turn back the clock, so that we could have prepared a little better”