By BRET STEPHENS
Ben Rhodes, President Obama’s
deputy national security adviser, has been offering a reassuring view of the
Iranian nuclear deal in the face of some Arab skepticism. “If you can
diplomatically and peacefully resolve the nuclear issue in a way that prevents
Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon,” he told reporters last week, “we believe
that will lead to a much more stable region.” Mr. Rhodes also contends that
with a deal “there will be no need to see [a] regional arms race.”
So what’s
more frightening: That Mr. Rhodes believes what he’s saying? Or that he does
not?
Just for
Mr. Rhodes’s benefit, here’s a refresher course on stability and the arms race
in the Middle East since April 2, 2015, the day Mr. Obama announced his framework
nuclear agreement with Iran.
April 2:
Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif immediately
accuses the U.S. of “spin”
and contradicts Mr. Obama’s key claims regarding the terms of the deal.
April 12:
A Swedish think tank reports that Saudi Arabia registered the biggest increase in defense spending in
the world
.
April 13:
Moscow says it will deliver the S-300
air-defense system to Tehran. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei later boasts that the
U.S. “can’t do a damn thing” militarily against Iran.
April 14:
Iran announces agreements with Russia and China
to build additional nuclear reactors.
April 17:
Iran dispatches an armed convoy of ships, believed to be destined to resupply
pro-Iranian Houthi rebels in Yemen in contravention of a U.N. arms embargo. The
convoy turns back after the U.S. deploys an aircraft carrier to the region to
shadow the ships.
April 20: Jason
Rezaian, the
American-born Washington Post reporter imprisoned in Iran since July, is charged with espionage, “collaborating
with hostile governments” and “propaganda against the establishment.”
April 20:
The British government informs the U.N. panel monitoring
sanctions on Iran that it “is aware of an active Iranian nuclear procurement
network” associated with two Iranian companies that are under international
sanctions.
April 22:
Saudi Arabia resumes airstrikes in Yemen despite administration pressure to
maintain a cease fire.
April 28:
Iran seizes the 837-foot long Maersk Tigris, a
Marshall Islands flagged cargo ship with 34 sailors aboard, as it transits the
Strait of Hormuz along an internationally recognized route. The ship is
released a week later after Maersk pays a fine of $163,000.
April 29:
Former Saudi Intelligence Minister Turki al Faisal tells a conference in Seoul that the
kingdom will match Iran’s nuclear capabilities with its own. “Whatever the
Iranians have, we will have, too.” The prince also accuses Mr. Obama of going
“behind the backs of the traditional allies to strike the deal.”
May 8: Reuters reports that inspectors have discovered
traces of sarin gas at an undeclared military research site near Damascus. The
report puts paid to administration boasts that its diplomacy effectively solved
the Syrian chemical crisis.
May 11: Saudi Arabia’s King Salman withdraws from the
Arab summit meeting with Mr. Obama. The king of Bahrain follows suit,
preferring instead to attend a horse show with Britain’s Queen
Elizabeth.
May 13:
Reuters reports “the Czech Republic blocked an
attempted purchase by Iran this year of a large shipment of sensitive
technology usable for nuclear enrichment after false documentation raised
suspicions.”
May 14:
Iranian patrol boats fire upon a Singapore-flagged oil
tanker with machine guns as it transits the Strait of Hormuz. The ship makes it
safely to Dubai.
May 17:
Citing senior U.S. officials, the Sunday Times reports that “Saudi Arabia has taken the
‘strategic decision’ to acquire ‘off-the-shelf’ atomic weapons from Pakistan.”
Also on
May 17, Islamic State fighters in Iraq seize the city of Ramadi, the capital of
Anbar Province. This is after Mr. Obama crowed in February that “our coalition is
on the offensive, ISIL is on the defensive, and ISIL is going to lose.” Now the
Iraqi government will turn to Shiite paramilitaries under
Iranian control to try to retake the city, further turning the Baghdad
government into an Iranian satrap.
***
I recount
these events not just to illustrate the distance between Ben Rhodes’s concept
of reality and reality itself. It’s also a question of speed. The Middle East,
along with our position in it, is unraveling at an astonishing pace. Reckless
drivers often don’t notice how fast they’re going until they’re about to crash.
We are
near the point where there will be no walking back the mistakes we have made.
No walking away from them, either. It takes a special innocence to imagine that
nothing in life is irreversible, that everything can be put right, that
fanaticism yields to reason and facts yield to wishes, and that the arc of
Mideast history bends toward justice.
Ben
Rhodes, and the administration he represents and typifies, is special.
***
It is by now clear to most that the US is run by an incompetent fool. What is really surprising and scary is that the American political system of checks and balances is incapable of fixing the problem.
It is by now clear to most that the US is run by an incompetent fool. What is really surprising and scary is that the American political system of checks and balances is incapable of fixing the problem.
