By Daniel Pipes
The
Nov. 24 deadline came and went for an agreement between Western powers and the
Islamic Republic of Iran; on that date, they managed only to extend the
existing interim deal for another seven months. The ayatollah crowed and U.S. senators stewed. Looking beyond these
responses, the current situation spurs several thoughts:
•
If one assumes, as I do, that the apocalyptically minded Iranian leadership
will do everything it can to acquire the bomb, then economic sanctions
only serve to slow its course, not to stop it. Put more forcefully, the debate
over sanctions is peripheral and even diversionary. The arcane financial and scientific minutiae of
the negotiations tend to bury the only discussion that really matters --
whether or not some government will
use force to reverse the nuclear program.
• That said, should the
114th Congress pass legislation with a veto-proof majority, this would be an unprecedented blow against U.S.
President Barack Obama and would presumably serve as a low-water mark of his presidency. But this
signal event for American domestic politics is unlikely to affect the Iranian
program.
•
Some governments (Russian, American) have the means but not the intent to
destroy the Iranian facilities. Others (Saudi, Canadian) have the intent but
not the means. This leaves only one player that sort of has the means and
sort of has the intent: Israel. Given its in-between status, whether it will
act is the $64,000 question. This is
what preoccupies me and, I suggest, what others too should focus on.
•
Israel's conundrum appears genuine: On the one hand, it is the only state to
have knocked out nuclear programs (twice, in 1981 and 2007); on the
other, the logistical challenge and supremely high stakes make this
round far more daunting.
•
Not for the first time, the 8 million people of Israel have an outsized international
role. There's a reason it has the highest per capita number of
foreign correspondents: Whether it's classical music virtuosity, religious passions,
high-tech breakthroughs, U.N. Security Council resolutions, or warfare, the
Jewish state globally punches
far above its weight class.
Daniel
Pipes is president of the Middle East Forum.
