A predominantly one-topic blog: how is it that the most imminent and lethal implication for humankind - the fact that the doctrine of "Mutually Assured Destruction" will not work with Iran - is not being discussed in our media? Until it is recognized that MAD is dead, the Iranian threat will be treated as a threat only to Israel and not as the global threat which it in fact is. A blog by Mladen Andrijasevic
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Sunday, December 8, 2013
The Geneva deal - the scapegoat ceremony
By Shmuel Trigano
( an
improved Google translation from the French)
University
Professor
The scene of
the signing of the Geneva Deal will remain in the annals of history. Kisses
exchanged to celebrate a collective resignation of a consortium of superpowers facing a medium-sized power has
something fascinating in it. In a few years we will see in this dizzying show the sign of the decline of the West as an
international policy concept. In their fear of confrontation and their moral inability
to name the enemy that threatens them, these
powers have yielded to the blackmail of the clerical regime whose apocalyptic convictions
have proven to be stronger than their faith in human rights, so celebrated by
the West. What remains unclear in the announcement
is what will Israel do now that the treason by its American ally has become obvious. The word is harsh but the evil and cunning of
Obama’s policies is now clear to all. Israel's
existence is at stake from the lethal threat of both the Shi’a (whose anti -Semitism
is stronger than the Sunni) and from the risk of being quarantined by the Western
camp. It is this latter aspect that shines with clarity today.
This is one
of the most astounding and significant aspects of this event. One of the main rationale
for the sanctions against Iran was
supposed to have been the public threat of Iran against Israel. But it is now Israel which if found isolated
and on the margins, threatened by international condemnation. If Israel decides to act against Iran it will
be labeled as the global threat to peace and unanimously condemned. If Israel fights this collective lie of this
global alliance it will end up in a position Iran had been before the Geneva
deal. The EU demands on Israel ‘s borders and the threat of ostracism it would face if it does not submit
( see conditions of agreements signed between him and the EU ) shows the credibility of the spirit of banishment that threatens Europe.
This
potential turnaround is quite characteristic of the scapegoat crisis. The goat
is indeed an ambivalent symbol crystallizing the unfairness and guilt, on the one
side, and the purchase and redemption of the other. He who takes upon himself the
impurity of all is the one who will purify everyone. This is why the
"role" that Israel plays in this gathering of hypocrites
is volatile and can turn against him, as
can be predicted today. The
unity against Iran, built for years in the international arena, is transformed into a unity against the one whom Iran threatened. Iran and Western powers, former enemies, renew
their relationship in hugs and expel the supposed object of their conflict. This
is the exact meaning of the shameful spectacle of Geneva. The celebrated result
of the abandonment of Israel is “Peace”. The dividends of this group surrender are
the juicy benefits in the form of Iranian economic markets that open to
Westerners who are already competing with each other.
However, at
the base of this transaction is a collective lie because if Israel is directly targeted in the Shiite scenario (
the coming of the Mahdi ), so is not only
the whole Middle East i.e. the Sunni enemies
of the Shi'a but also Europe and everything
that bears an American flag . It is a lie to believe that it is (once more!) only Israel who is concerned and has a dog in the fight
and to believe that it is the American
Jewish lobby pushing for war that profits
Israel alone. In the logic of the
scapegoat the choice of the scapegoat does not have a rational basis. The immense
hostility against Israel in the Muslim world coupled with the history of
Western anti-Semitism (the Holocaust) makes Israel a perfect scapegoat. It crystallizes the anxiety of the entire world
against Israel.
The lessons
of this story (the confidence of the allies in treaties, international
resolutions) are very numerous and it is hoped that Israeli leaders will be
strong enough to do what they have to do. More than ever, the words of the Tradition
" Abraham on one side and the rest
of the world on the other " are true. That is the reason to trust the destiny
of an eternal Israel.
Shmuel Trigano
Professeur des Universités
La scène de la signature de l’accord de Genève restera dans les annales de l’histoire. Les baisers échangés pour célébrer une démission collective d’un consortium de super puissances face à une puissance de taille moyenne ont quelque chose de fascinant. Dans quelques années on verra dans ce spectacle étourdissant le signal du déclin de l’Occident comme concept politique international. Par peur de la confrontation, par incapacité morale à nommer l’ennemi qui les menace, ces puissances ont cédé devant le chantage du régime des mollahs dont la conviction apocalyptique s’avère à cette occasion plus forte que la foi, tant célébrée par les Occidentaux, des « droits de l’homme ». L’inconnue de cette démission annoncée est de savoir ce que va faire Israël qui se retrouve dans une solitude épaisse et tragique parce que la trahison de son allié américain est devenue évidente. Le mot est fort mais la perversité et la rouerie de la politique d’Obama est désormais étalée aux yeux de tous. L’existence d’Israël est en jeu, à la fois sous la menace léthale de la folie chiite (dont l’antijudaisme est plus puissant qu’il ne l’est dans le sunnisme) et, désormais, sous le risque d’une mise en quarantaine par le camp occidental. C’est ce dernier aspect qui transparaît avec clarté aujourd’hui.
C’est là une des facettes les plus stupéfiantes et significatives de cet événement. La menace publique de l’Iran contre Israël était censée jouer comme la raison d’être des sanctions à son encontre. Or, c’est Israël qui se retrouve en marge et solitaire, menacé d’une réprobation internationale. S’ il décidait d’une action contre l’Iran, il incarnerait vite la menace planétaire pour la paix et ferait l’unanimité contre lui. S’il troublait ce mensonge collectif d’une entente mondiale, il se retrouverait ainsi dans la position de l’Iran avant « l’accord » de Genève. Le diktat de l’Union européenne sur les frontières d’Israël, sous menace de mise au ban s’il ne se soumet pas (voir les conditions de signatures d’accords entre lui et l’U.E.), montre la crédibilité du vent de bannissement qui le menace en Europe.
Ce renversement potentiel de situation est très caractéristique de la crise du bouc émissaire. Le bouc est en effet un symbole ambivalent cristallisant sur lui la faute et la culpabilité, d’un côté, et le rachat et la rédemption, de l’autre. Celui qui prend sur lui l’impureté de tous est celui qui va purifier tout le monde. C’est pourquoi le « rôle » que joue Israël dans cette assemblée de faux-jetons est volatile et peut se retourner contre lui, comme on l’entrevoit aujourd’hui. L’unanimité contre l’Iran, construite depuis des années dans l’arène internationale, se transmue en unanimité contre celui qu’il menaçait. Les ennemis d’antan, Iran et puissances occidentales, s’unissent alors dans les embrassades et renouent leurs liens, en expulsant l’objet prétendu de leur conflit. C’est exactement le sens du honteux spectacle de Genève. La « paix » célébrée est le fruit de l’abandon d’Israël. Les juteuses retombées de ce deal, les marchés économiques iraniens qui s’ouvrent aux Occidentaux, déjà en concurrence entre eux, sont les dividendes offerts à la démission de tous.
Il y a, pourtant, à la base de cette transaction un mensonge collectif, car si Israël est directement ciblé dans le scenario chiite (la venue du mahdi), c’est non seulement tout le Moyen Orient – les ennemis sunnites du chiisme – qui l’est mais aussi l’Europe, sans compter tout ce qui porte un drapeau américain. C’est un pieux mensonge de croire que c’est (encore!) Israël qui est seul concerné et qui est l’empêcheur de tourner en rond, ou de croire que c’est le lobby juif américain qui pousse à la guerre aux bénéfices du seul Israël. Dans la logique du bouc émissaire, le choix du bouc n’a pas de fondement rationnel. L’immense hostilité dont Israël est l’objet dans le monde musulman, couplée aux antécédents de l’antisémitisme occidental (la Shoah) a tout pour le désigner à remplir un tel rôle. Il cristallise ainsi l’angoisse de tous en vue de son expulsion.
Les leçons à tirer de cette histoire (la confiance en les alliés, dans les traités, les résolutions internationales, etc) sont très nombreuses et il faut espérer que les dirigeants israéliens auront la force d’âme de les assumer résolument. Plus que jamais, la parole de la Tradition « Abraham d’un côté et le reste du monde de l’autre » est vraie. Ce qui est une raison d’avoir confiance dans le destin de l’Israël éternel.
A partir d’un article paru dans Actualité Juive, 5 décembre 2013.
Friday, December 6, 2013
Ignorance reigns – from the Obama administration to Tel Aviv restaurateurs
Only bungling stupidity
can in the final analysis explain the support of not only Obama but his whole
administration for a deal that is bound to lead to nuclear war. But stupidity
and ignorance is everywhere. Yesterday in Tel Aviv we were starving and
looking for a place to eat when we entered this packed place קוקיצה at Ben Yehuda 33 and it looked good. But when I saw the Che
Guevara poster on the wall we got up and left the restaurant.
The victims of Che Guevara
The poster on the wall
in the קוקיצה restaurant
and what they should have put:
Tuesday, December 3, 2013
Betrayal: American Jews, Israel, and a Nuclear Iran
The failure of American Jewry during the Holocaust pales besides that of American Jewry today. By virtue of its unshakable adulation of Obama, American Jewry has watched calmly as he placed 6 million Jews in Israel under threat of extinction from an Iranian nuclear bomb. —
The Jewish People
are compared to a lamb: Just as a blow to any part of a lamb, which is a small
animal, reverberates throughout its body, so a blow to any Jew is felt by every
other Jew. It was said at the time of the Mendel Beilis “ritual murder trial” in
the early 20th century: If you strike a Jew in Minsk, a thousand Jews cry out
on the Lower East Side.
But along with the rapid decline in religious observance over the last century so has there been a rapid decline in social solidarity among Jews. A few years back, sociologist Steven Cohen determined that half of American Jews 35 and under would not view the destruction of the State of Israel, and with it the death of over 6 million Jews, as a personal tragedy. That finding has been confirmed by American Jewry’s slavish worship of President Barack Obama, even as he has paved the way for Iran to gain nuclear weapons.
FROM THE BEGINNING of Obama’s meteoric rise, there were good reasons to suspect that he is not, in the words of veteran peace-processor Aaron David Miller, someone “in love with the idea of Israel.” One early piece of evidence: the 20 years he spent in the pews of Rev. Jeremiah Wright, an outspoken supporter of Louis Farrakhan. More evidence: his warm Hyde Park friendship with former PLO apparatchik Rashid Khalidi.
None of this kept American Jews from supporting Obama more ardently than any demographic group besides blacks in 2008. During his first term, Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu was the only head of state subjected to a 45-minute harangue at Obama’s orders by his virago secretary of state or left to cool his heels in the servants’ quarters while the Obama family supped upstairs. But that did not bother American Jews because their bible, the New York Times, certified that Netanyahu is “right-wing.”
In his 2009 Cairo
speech, the president echoed the Arab line that the State of Israel came into
being as recompense for the Holocaust and ignored some rather more ancient
connections to the Land. That, too, was excused as rhetorical flourish to reach
out to the Muslim world.
After once again gaining overwhelming, albeit diminished, Jewish support in 2012, Obama has enjoyed rubbing American Jewry’s nose in how little they concern him. First came the appointment of Chuck Hagel as secretary of defense. In the Senate, Hagel was one of the two most outspoken opponents of Israel and the “Israel lobby,” and he has multiple ties to the Iranian lobby in America.
Next came the appointment of John O. Brennan to head the CIA. Brennan, Obama’s former counterterrorism advisor, has demonstrated a remarkable penchant for finding moderate elements in Hizbullah and the Muslim Brotherhood, which he once described as a secular organization. As counterterrorism advisor, he ordered all references to Islam and jihad scrubbed from US antiterrorism training manuals.
Obama pressured AIPAC to rally congressional support for American intervention in Syria after Assad trampled the president’s “red line” and employed chemical weapons. Then he left AIPAC out to dry and vulnerable to charges of urging America to go to war at Israel’s behest when he changed course. To show his gratitude, Obama sent Vice President Biden to give the keynote speech at the annual convention of J Street, an organization that has never discovered an Israeli government action worthy of support or an enemy’s action worthy of condemnation.
BEYOND HIS EVIDENT LACK OF WARMTH FOR ISRAEL, Obama has been fascinated by the idea of American rapprochement with radical Islamic regimes. He eagerly supported and facilitated the Muslim Brotherhood takeover in Egypt, and had only the most muted criticism of the Morsi government when it allowed mobs to overrun the US embassy in Cairo. He opposed the military coup that ousted Morsi and took the unprecedented step of cutting American military assistance to Egypt, just as the new military government was engaging militant Islamists in Sinai.
And it now becomes clear that normalizing relations with the Iranian mullahs has long been a top foreign policy goal. Thus Obama ignored pleas from Iranian protesters during the 2009 mass demonstrations following the stolen presidential elections for some expression of American support. He backed down when Iranian client Bashar Assad crossed his own “red line” by employing chemical weapons in the Syrian civil war out of some fanciful notion that aiding Iranian hegemony in Syria will make Supreme Leader Khamenei better disposed to the United States. And we now know that for the last six months, the president has been unilaterally weakening sanctions by failing to report violators of sanctions — an effective green light to all would-be violators.
Even expressions of the most virulent Muslim anti-Semitism earned little reproof from the White House. Obama repeatedly called Turkey’s prime minister, Recep Erdogan, his “best friend” in the Middle East, despite the latter’s repeated expressions of hatred for Israel. Egypt’s Mohamed Morsi echoed the Hamas charter in referring to Jews as offspring of pigs and monkeys at no cost.
Iran’s supreme leader (fuhrer in Parsi) Khamenei recently called Israel a “rabid dog” that must be “annihilated,” without causing any pause in America’s rush to conclude an interim accord with Iran on its nuclear weapons program. The best the Obama administration could do in response was to offer some sickening equivalence about unkind things said in the United States about Iran and call on all parties to refrain from playing to local constituencies with unhelpful remarks.
It does not dawn on the Obama administration that Khamenei really means what he says about Israel, just as Hitler meant what he wrote in Mein Kampf about his plans for the Jews.
THAT BRINGS US TO THE INTERIM NUCLEAR ACCORD negotiated through secret back channels between the United States and Iran. That accord would more properly be described as an agreement to constrain Israel from striking Iranian nuclear facilities than as an agreement to constrain Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons. As long as the agreement is in effect — and it can be renewed indefinitely — Israel would be treated as a “rogue” nation for attacking Iran.
The accord gives Iran legitimacy and removes it from the category of rogue nations for pursuing nuclear enrichment. The interim accord explicitly grants Iran the right to keep enriching up to 5 percent and contemplates a final agreement concerning a “mutually defined enrichment program.” The accord thus explicitly recognizes Iran’s right to enrich uranium, overturning, in the process, six UN Security Council resolutions to the contrary.
The US administration touted Iran’s commitment not to produce a nuclear weapon, but that commitment is laughable and only makes Iran look more responsible. Many elements of the Iranian nuclear program have no conceivable civilian use: its enrichment of uranium to 20 percent, the heavy water reactor at Arak designed to produce plutonium for use in a bomb. Over the years, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has amassed a large dossier on Iranian work on nuclear triggers and weaponization. Finally, the entire enrichment program is economically irrational for oil-rich Iran, since it could purchase all the enriched uranium needed for a civilian nuclear program at a fraction of the cost of producing it itself.
Western nations entered the negotiations with the maximum leverage over Iran they are ever likely to enjoy. Yet rather than maintaining the pressure and even ramping up sanctions, the West provided Iran immediate sanctions relief worth billions. In return, Iran agreed to easily reversible steps that will do little more than increase the time needed for a breakout to a bomb by one to two months at most.
The US and its allies negotiated as if they were the desperate party. Whenever Iran said no, the demand was dropped. Mark Steyn summed it up archly: Both sides got what they wanted. The West got an agreement and the Iranians got nukes.
The longer an interim accord remains in place, the more difficult it becomes to sustain even the current level of sanctions. European companies are already chafing at the bit to resume business with Iran. Thus it is hard to envision Iran agreeing in the future to any steps that would materially set back the time needed to obtain a bomb.
Nothing in the interim accord comes close to doing so. Iran will not dismantle a single centrifuge nor limit its production of new ones. It did not even agree to hand over its stock of 20 percent enriched uranium, only to oxidize half that stock to 5 percent, from which it can quickly be enriched again to 20 percent.
Iran agreed only to heighten inspections in the enrichment facilities to which it admits. (No Iranian nuclear facility has ever been disclosed voluntarily.) But the agreement is silent about inspection of sites where weapons research might be conducted, including nuclear triggers. No mention is made of the Parchin site, which the IAEA is convinced was used for weapons research and testing. Iran did not agree to dismantle the heavy water reactor at Arak or its underground facility at Fordow.
Either the US seeks to gain temporary relief from a current headache (much as was done with Syrian chemical weapons) or is operating on the entirely fanciful notion that Iran — guided by an expansionist Islamic theology and currently the world’s leading state sponsor of terrorism — will become a building block of a new, stable world order.
Comparisons to the 1938 Munich Agreement were everywhere in the air last week. But as Bret Stephens pointed out, the comparison of Obama to Neville Chamberlain is unfair to the latter. Neither England nor France were militarily prepared to face Hitler in 1938. But the United States enjoys overwhelming military superiority over Iran, and Iran’s economy has been crippled by sanctions.
I couldn’t help but think of another Holocaust era analogy, however. I remember how my friends and I were shocked in our youth to learn of the apathy of American Jews to the plight of European Jewry. Yet the Jewish community of that time was far weaker than today — less integrated into American life, far less affluent, and more fearful of still widespread anti-Semitism.
The failure of American Jewry during the Holocaust pales besides that of American Jewry today. By virtue of its unshakable adulation of Obama, American Jewry has watched calmly as he placed 6 million Jews in Israel under threat of extinction from an Iranian nuclear bomb. —
Monday, December 2, 2013
Churchill at the Guest House of Mishkenot Sha'ananim
Saturday, November 30, 2013
Operating on the basis of limited perspective
I’d
been reading George
F. Kennan: An American Life by John Lewis Gaddis when I came across this paragraph,
page 555, which really hit home:
But he was frightened. On the way from the airport, Kennan
had stopped at the White House to see Arthur Schlesinger, now serving as a
presidential aide – Kennedy was spending the weekend at Hyannis Port, Massachusetts.
“You and I are historians,” Schlesinger
recorded Kennan having said, “or rather you are a real historian and I am a pseudo-historian.”
We both know how tenuous a relation there is
between man’s intentions and the consequences of his acts…. I have children,
and I do not propose to let the future of mankind be settled or ended by a
group of men operating on the basis of limited perspective and short-run
calculations. I figure that the only thing left in life is to do everything I can
to stop the war.
Friday, November 29, 2013
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