Why did the West not prevent the invasion of Ukraine?
https://www.svoboda.org/a/kto-ostanovit-yadernyy-shantazh-putina-grani-vremeni-v-muminom-shakirovym-efir-v-19-05/31725067.html
The following is the google translate from the interview three days ago:
Mumin Shakirov: I spoke with Andrey Piontkovsky about who or what can prevent Vladimir Putin from using nuclear weapons and why the world is faced with such a Russian leader who wants to unleash a third world war.
Mr. Piontkovsky, you are one of those rare experts who figured Putin out 20 years ago, when the "Heir" operation took place. In this context, did he disappoint you, or did he outdo himself?
Andrei Piontkovsky: Extremely negative tendencies developed in him, which I saw when he first appeared on television in October 1999 with his famous line: "We'll pee in the toilet!" Now Putin is going to "wet in the toilet" the whole world, or at least the entire Western world. He wants to take revenge for the defeat of the Soviet Union in the Cold War.
Mumin Shakirov: Experts write: "After these events, Putin joined the club of such rulers as Saddam Hussein and Muammar Gaddafi." If not, how is it different from them?
Andrei Piontkovsky: Putin differs from Saddam Hussein and Muammar Gaddafi in that he has a nuclear bomb, and this poses a huge danger to the world. He constantly emphasizes and tells how he is ready to use it. Nuclear blackmail is already an active element of his foreign policy. Even during the seizure of the Crimea, he boasted that he had put the nuclear strategic forces on alert. His remark at a press conference after the meeting with Macron was very revealing. It was extremely outspoken. It gave away all his plans, which I have been writing about for at least eight years, since the day of his so-called "Crimean" (and I call it "Sudet") speech. He said (very unexpectedly for him, he never admits any weaknesses): "Yes, we are inferior to NATO as a whole at the conventional level, but we have nuclear weapons, and modern models that are superior to those possessed by the West." It was he who shared his strategy: to get involved in a conventional clash with the West, and then, when his advantage becomes clear, raise the stakes to nuclear, threaten a nuclear strike. And according to his calculations, the West will shudder, retreat and capitulate. This is the policy that he plans for the future.
Mumin Shakirov: And how do you like the position of the collective West, which could not prevent the invasion of Russian troops into Ukraine?
Andrei Piontkovsky: Ukraine is not accepted because the United States is not ready to go to war in the event of a threat to Ukraine from Russia with a nuclear power. This is clear. But their behavior is much worse. Not only are they unprepared to clash with a nuclear power, but they are also not prepared to give up rather petty economic interests in trade with that power. A terrible, unpleasant signal for the fighting Ukraine, and very encouraging of Putin's impunity, was the refusal of the West to disconnect Russia from the global SWIFT payment system. This is a strong economic blow. But something else is even more important here. This has already become, as it were, symbolism... By the way, Biden honestly explained that he disagrees with the EU. The Germans have a very large trade with Russia. And disconnecting from SWIFT means disconnecting Russia from world trade. Then, instead of what can be done with one click on a computer button, you will have to go somewhere in New York or Tokyo with a bag of cash.International trade is always beneficial to both parties, otherwise they would not trade. And Germany, which has a huge volume of trade, does not want to suffer economic losses. Even while, before her eyes, the tanks of the aggressor are driving around the neighboring country and do not hide the task of the operation - the destruction of the Ukrainian state.
Mumin Shakirov: Putin repeatedly shook the nuclear button in front of the nose of the West, like a key fob from an expensive car. This is a quote from Dmitry Muratov. Will he achieve a meeting so that Biden and Johnson sit opposite him, as Stalin, Churchill and Roosevelt once decided the fate of the world?
Andrei Piontkovsky: No, this will not happen in any case, he has already understood this. He goes to his goal with real, practical steps. If he manages to pass Ukraine painlessly, then the next one will be the Baltics, where all the hypocrisy of the West will have to be exposed. I am sure that if he manages to lose Ukraine, Putin will certainly test him for weakness by arranging some kind of operation to protect the indigenous Russian population in Estonia, for example.
Mumin Shakirov: Who or what can stop Putin, who is at war with the fraternal Slavic people with the help of ballistic missiles?
Andrei Piontkovsky: The West is responding to some of its obligations under Article 5, pulling up some forces, a military clash with Russian forces that have invaded Estonia begins. Putin is well aware of this, as it turned out from his remark after the meeting with Macron, at a certain stage, the conventional superiority of NATO will appear quite quickly. Then Putin puts forward an ultimatum: "Retreat and capitulate! Or I will use a limited nuclear strike." For example, two warheads: one - on the accumulation of American troops, and the second - maybe on some European city. According to Putin's calculations, and he still believes this, the West will be horrified, retreat and capitulate. At the Pentagon, General Mattis (the “mad dog,” as he is called) learned about this doctrine, surprisingly, from the mouths of veterans of the Soviet special services. There are regular meetings of veterans of the American and Russian intelligence services. It was in Washington in 2016. And they began to tell him all this as blackmail and intimidation. Mattis later wrote in his long interview after his resignation: "I was horrified. For the first time I realized that Russia poses an existential threat to the United States." And he ordered the development of a doctrine of what to do in this extreme case. America didn't even have tactical nuclear weapons in Europe. And two terrible options arise: either capitulate, retreat, or switch to full nuclear war, that is, mutually assured destruction, to destroy all of humanity. They acted very simply - they replaced the warheads on their Ohio missile carriers, there are 24 Atlas missiles. The warheads, which were about 50 kilotons (that's the "doomsday weapon"), have been replaced with small warheads of about five kilotons. And they accepted as a military strategy that in the event of such a scenario, they would respond with the same small nuclear strike. The publication of this scenario, according to the plan, is primarily in the nature of containment, sends a signal to Putin that "we will not capitulate, keep in mind that we will also respond." How Putin will perceive this in a real situation, we do not know. But it is quite realistic that these scenarios will unfold somewhere in the next year or two.
Mumin Shakirov: Are you saying that we are in for an apocalypse?
Andrey Piontkovsky: Putin delivers this blow, the Americans apparently respond immediately to the residence in which Putin is located. These are still limited shots. These are colossal sacrifices, but this is not an apocalypse. And then either some associates grab Putin by the nuclear button, or he himself dies, or this exchange of blows stops, or he can slip into the apocalypse. But Putin foresaw this scenario as well: “They
will all die, and you and I will go to heaven."
Mumin Shakirov: After the bombing of Ukrainian cities with cruise missiles, did Putin step from The Hague to Nuremberg?
Andrey Piontkovsky: Stepped, of course. But the main thing, I am now observing, the Russian people stepped along with him. Yet the capture of Ukraine is the first screen on all the world's television companies. And I would reproach the West in many ways - they did not go for SWIFT. But society is reacting much more strongly than before. The latest news for football fans: we were kicked out of all UEFA, our teams will play on a foreign field and so on. I'm not afraid of what will happen to Putin, I'm afraid that the Russians will have to wash off Putin for much longer than the Germans from Hitler. This is the biggest threat to our society.
