The
Wall Street Journal
How many allies does President Obama think the U.S. can afford to squander?
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Israeli Defense Minister Moshe Ya’alon (right) shakes hands
with former Saudi intelligence chief Prince Turki al-Faisal at
the Munich Security Conference, Feb. 14.
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By BRET STEPHENS
Jerusalem
Talk to Israelis about the United States these days and
you will provoke a physical reaction. Barack
Obama is
an eye roll. John
Kerry is a grimace. The administration’s conduct of regional policy
is a slow, sad shake of the head. The current state of the presidential race
makes for a full-blown shudder. The Israeli rundown of the candidates goes
roughly as follows: “Hillary—she doesn’t like us.” “Cruz—I don’t like him.”
“Rubio—is he done for?” “Sanders—oy vey.” “Trump—omigod.”
As for Israel’s own troubles—a continuing Palestinian
campaign of stabbings; evidence that Hamas is rebuilding its network of terror
tunnels under the Gaza border and wants to restart the 2014 war; more than
100,000 rockets and guided missiles in the hands of Hezbollah—that’s just the
Middle East being itself. It’s the U.S. not being itself that is the real
novelty, and is forcing Israel to adjust.
I’ve spent the better part of a week talking to senior
officials, journalists, intellectuals and politicians from across Israel’s
political spectrum. None of it was on the record, but the consistent theme is
that, while the Jewish state still needs the U.S., especially in the form of
military aid, it also needs to diversify its strategic partnerships. This may yet
turn out to be the historic achievement of Benjamin Netanyahu’s long reign as
prime minister.
On Sunday, Israeli Defense Minister Moshe
Ya’alon publicly
shook hands with former Saudi intelligence chief Prince
Turki al-Faisal at
the Munich Security Conference. In January, Israeli cabinet memberYuval
Steinitz made
a trip to Abu Dhabi, where Israel is opening an office at a renewable-energy
association. Turkey is patching up ties with Israel. In June, Jerusalem and
Riyadh went public with the strategic talks between them. In March, Egyptian
President Abdel
Fatah al-Sisi told
the Washington Post that he speaks to Mr. Netanyahu “a lot.”
This de facto Sunni-Jewish alliance amounts to what might
be called the coalition of the disenchanted; states that have lost faith in
America’s promises. Israel is also reinventing its ties to the aspiring Startup
Nations, countries that want to develop their own innovation cultures.
In October, Israel hosted Indian President Pranab
Mukherjee for
a three-day state visit; New Delhi, once a paragon of the nonaligned movement
that didn’t have diplomatic ties to Israel for four decades, is about to spend
$3 billion on Israeli arms. Japanese Prime MinisterShinzo Abe, who
is personally close to Mr. Netanyahu, sees Israel as a model for economic
reinvention. Chinese investment in Israel hit $2.7 billion last year, up from
$70 million in 2010. In 2014, Israel’s exports to the Far East for the first
time exceeded those to the U.S.
Then there is Europe—at least the part of it that is
starting to grasp that it can’t purchase its security in the coin of Israeli
insecurity. Greece’s left-wing Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras used
to lead anti-Israel protests. But Greece needs Israeli gas, so he urges
cooperation on terrorism and calls Jerusalem Israel’s “historic capital.” In
the U.K., Prime Minister David
Cameron’s government is moving to prevent local councils from
passing Boycott, Divestment and Sanctions (BDS) measures against Israel.
All this amounts to another Obama administration
prediction proved wrong. “You see for Israel there’s an increasing delegitimization
campaign that has been building up,” Mr. Kerry warned grimly in 2014. “There
are talks of boycotts and other kinds of things. Today’s status quo absolutely,
to a certainty, I promise you 100%, cannot be maintained.”
Except when the likely alternatives to the lousy status
quo are worse. Over the weekend, U.N. Ambassador Samantha
Power came
to Jerusalem to preach the virtues of a two-state solution. Her case would be
unarguable if the Palestinian state to be created alongside Israel were modeled
on Costa Rica—democratic, demilitarized, developing, friendly to outsiders.
But the likelier model is Gaza, or Syria. Why should
Israelis be expected to live next to that? How would that help actual living
Palestinians, as opposed to the perpetual martyrs of left-wing imagination? And
why doesn’t the U.S. insist that Palestinian leaders prove they are capable of
decently governing a state before being granted one?
Those are questions Mr. Obama has been incapable of
asking himself, lest a recognition of facts intrude on the narrative of a
redemptive presidency. But a great power that cannot recognize the dilemmas of
its allies soon becomes useless as an ally, and it becomes intolerable if it
then turns its strategic ignorance into a moral sermon.
More than one Israeli official I spoke with recalled that
the country managed to survive the years before 1967 without America’s
strategic backing, and if necessary it could do so again. Nations that must
survive typically do. The more important question is how much credibility the
U.S. can afford to squander before the loss becomes irrecoverable.
***
***
“Rubio—is
he done for?” But Rubio won the last CBS debate and he is the only reasonable
choice between “Sanders—oy vey.” and “Trump—omigod.” who Israelis hope
will prevail and take office in 339
days 11 hours and 21 minutes
