Ari Shavit continues
with his series on the Iranian threat. Today he interviews the "decision maker".
Excerpts:
The decision maker is a controversial person. There was a time
when he was regarded as a savior, but right after he was seen as a pariah. But
even those who loath the decision maker admit that he is exceptionally
intelligent . Even his detractors are aware that he possesses unique strategic
experience.
....
But you haven't answered my main
question . Even you admit that Iranian nuclearization is inevitable, the
counter argument is that Iran's nuclearization will be much more dangerous to
Israel if we bomb Iran than if we don't . Even Yehezkel Dror warned about a vengeful nuclear Iran. Better
an Iranian nuclear bomb with no Israeli bombing in 2015 than an Iranian nuclear
bomb in 2020 after an Israeli bombing .
The decision maker does not like
the question. He grows impatient: " There is a logical fallacy here. People presume that if we do not
act, Iran will not go nuclear. But that is not the situation. If we do
not act it's almost certain that Iran will go nuclear. If we do act , there
is a good chance that Iran will not go nuclear for a long while.
....
A country does not go to war in hope or expectation that
another country will join it. Such an act is an irresponsible gamble. But the question
is how do you define backing. Was there backing in the Six-Day War? Do you
think that in 1967 the Americans told Foreign Minister Abba Eban and Mossad chief Meir Amit anything
different than what they are telling us now?
But then Ebban saw difficulty in the opportunity and Amit saw an opportunity
in the difficulty, and the Eshkol government
made a decision. And what was that all about? About the closure of the Strait
of Tiran? The sword hanging over our neck today is a lot sharper than the sword that hung over
before the Six-Day War.
....
If Israel forgoes the chance to act and it becomes clear that
it no longer has the power to act, the likelihood of an American action will decrease.
So we cannot wait a year to find out who was right: the one who said that the
likelihood of an American action is high or the one who said that the likelihood
of an American action is low. We
can't wait to find out one morning that we relied on the Americans but were
fooled because the Americans didn't act in the end. We need to look at the
reality right now with total clarity . Even a cruel reality must be looked at
with total clarity. Even a cruel
reality must be looked at with total clarity. Israel is strong and Israel is
responsible, and Israel will do what it has to do."
Total
clarity? Historians of the future will be puzzled by the fact that Israel even
while facing an existential threat, greater
than the one on the eve of the Six-Day War in 1967, was still reluctant to
discuss the true nature of the Iranian threat.
The crucial religious/ideological angle which would
give clarity to the Iranian motives is being deliberately avoided. Why?
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