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Sunday, October 21, 2018

Does Putin’s concept of the MAD doctrine differ from the classic Soviet one?



Putin was speaking to an audience of international experts in Sochi, the Black Sea 

He said:

We have no concept of a preemptive strike.   

Our concept is the retaliatory strike. This means that we will use nuclear weapons only when we have been convinced that a potential aggressor is attacking Russia, attacking our territory.  Of course it is a world-wide catastrophe. But I repeat, we would not be the initiators of such a catastrophe because we do not have a preemptive strike .

Well, in that situation we are in a way waiting that someone uses nuclear weapons against us and we ourselves do nothing.
 

Yes, of course. The aggressor will have to understand that retaliation is inevitable, that he will be destroyed and that we, as victims of aggression, as martyrs, will go to heaven. They will simply croak because they won't even have time to repent. 
 

В российской военной доктрине нет концепции превентивного ядерного удара; такой удар может быть только ответно-встречным

Когда убеждаемся, что атака идет на территорию России, только после этого мы наносим ответно-встречный удар. Конечно, это катастрофа всемирная. Но я повторяю: мы не можем быть инициаторами этой катастрофы, потому что у нас нет превентивного удара. Да, в этой ситуации мы как бы ждем, что в отношении нас применят оружие. Сами ничего не делаем. Но агрессор все равно должен знать, что возмездие неизбежно, что он будет уничтожен. А мы жертва агрессии. Мы, как мученики, попадем в рай, а они просто сдохнут. Они даже раскаяться не успеют. 

My comment:

Bizarre comment. The key sentence is in red. Apparently, Putin does not sufficiently mind that he and everyone around him would die since they as martyrs would go to heaven.  Which would mean that the MAD doctrine that worked during the Cold War might start faltering even with the Russians, not only with the Iranians.


Monday, September 24, 2018

The Il-20 downing. Whom are we to believe? Russia or Israel?



So after all the evidence the Israeli Air Force delegation presented to the Russians, they are still accusing Israel! Is this surprising? Hardly. A leopard never changes its spots.
Whom are we to believe?  The mentality that produced the reaction to the Kronstadt rebellion, the collectivization, the Ukrainian famine, the Kirov murder, the great Purge of the thirties, the Show Trials,  the Gulags, the Katyn massacre,  the Doctors’ Plot or just recently the bizarre RT Skripal poisoning suspects' interview? 
Or should we believe Israel? For those who know history the answer is obvious.

***

Update, September 26, 2018.  Published as a letter to the editor in today’s Jerusalem Post

Saturday, September 22, 2018

How manipulated are we? By Putin and by The Times of Israel?


It is a pitiful world we live in. Just when I wanted to demonstrate how manipulated we are by Putin’s handling of the Skripal poisoning suspect’s RT interview , I find out how The Times of Israel is using similar tactics. What a shame!

My post to the article  Russian spy poisoner suspect said to have been in Tel Aviv in 2016, as I see it  






And this is what everyone else can see




Monday, September 17, 2018

What did Putin want to achieve with the RT Skripal poisoning suspects' interview?




That journalists managed to find all these inconsistencies with the suspects’ passports and cover stories just shows that the Russians intended them to find them.  An experienced spy agency could not have been so sloppy.

So why is Putin doing this? They could have all just said nothing instead of having this preposterous Marx Brothers sketch interview on RT (transcript in English here) which the Washington Post thinks backfired. But did it backfire, or was not believing it the original intent?

I remember years ago, as a foreign student in the USSR, I often wondered how was it possible that the USSR had such primitive propaganda and was it not clear that so many Soviets would not believe it?

But then I was told that I was missing the point. Of course many Soviets did not believe Soviet propaganda and the authorities knew that they did not believe it. But what the authorities meant was this: we know that you do not believe what we are saying and you know that we know that - but there is nothing you can do about that!   In other words, the authorities were demonstrating their sheer power over the populace, - and that was the actual goal of the propaganda.  

So is Putin doing the same today?  Giving the finger to the West?  Demonstrating the powerlessness of the West?




Friday, August 3, 2018

R v Stephen Yaxley-Lennon (aka Tommy Robinson)



1 August 2018

R v Stephen Yaxley-Lennon (aka Tommy Robinson)

On appeal from the Crown Court sitting at Canterbury and Leeds

Judges: The Lord Chief Justice, the Rt Hon The Lord Burnett of Maldon; The Hon Mr Justice Turner; The Hon Mrs Justice McGowan DBE.

This summary in not part of the judgment


BACKGROUND TO THE APPEALS

The appellant attended Canterbury Crown Court on 8 May 2017 during the trial of four defendants for rape. The jury had been sent out for deliberation. The appellant carried out filming with a commentary on the steps of and inside the court building, although he did not film in the courtroom itself. He had intended to film the defendants but the trial judge had been made aware of his activities and had diverted the defendants through another exit. Notices throughout the court building made it clear that filming or taking photographs at court was an offence and might amount to contempt of court. The appellant had also been told to stop filming by security staff and warned that if he continued he might be committing an offence or be in contempt of court. He was arrested on 10 May 2017 and brought before Canterbury Crown Court. Proceedings were adjourned until 22 May 2017 when the judge explained that his filming could have the effect of substantially derailing the trial. The appellant was represented by leading and junior counsel and apologised to the court. The judge considered that the seriousness of the contempt called for committal and committed the appellant to three months’ imprisonment suspended for 18 months.

The appellant attended Leeds Crown Court on 25 May 2018. He recorded a video of himself standing outside the court building which he livestreamed via Facebook. The duration of the video was approximately 1.5 hours and concerned a trial which was the subject of a postponement order under s.4(2) of the Contempt of Court Act 1981 and its broader circumstances as part of a series of trials. That order prohibited the publication of any report of the proceedings until after the conclusion of that trial and a related trial which was yet to take place. The jury had retired for deliberation. The video was recorded near the entrance used by defendants and jurors. In the video the appellant referred to the trial, the identity of the defendants, the charges against them and to charges which had not been proceeded with against some of the defendants, and he confronted some of the defendants as they arrived at court. The judge was alerted to the appellant’s conduct and he was brought into court where the judge viewed part of the video in the presence of the appellant. The appellant offered to delete the video from Facebook, which the judge required as he was concerned that, if jurors saw it, it might derail the trial and affect the trial yet to start. The judge initiated proceedings for contempt of court against the appellant. Representation was found for the appellant during a 33 minute adjournment. Counsel indicated to the judge that they anticipated submissions of mitigation rather than a defence to the contempt. The particulars of the contempt were not put to the appellant and the appellant was not given the opportunity to admit or deny the contempt. Some mitigation was advanced on behalf of the appellant and the judge proceeded on the basis that the appellant had admitted contempt. The judge committed the appellant to ten months’ imprisonment (reduced from fifteen months for the admission) and activated the suspended committal imposed at Canterbury Crown Court.

JUDGMENT

The judgment of the Court is to dismiss the appeal in respect of the committal for contempt at Canterbury Crown Court and to allow the appeal in respect of the committal for contempt at Leeds Crown Court. The appellant is granted bail and the matter of contempt at Leeds Crown Court is remitted to be heard again.

The records are updated to address errors of form at the courts below.

 REASONS FOR THE JUDGMENT

Canterbury

The application was brought over a year out of time [5]. The appellant had not previously disputed the finding or sentence imposed at Canterbury Crown Court. The appellant’s complaints were that: (i) he was not served with a written statement containing the particulars required by Crim PR 48.7 [51]; (ii) that the judge failed to make plain whether she was exercising powers under s.41 of the Criminal Justice Act 1925 or her inherent jurisdiction in respect of criminal contempt [56]; and (iii) the judge had, in passing the suspended committal order, used terminology of criminal sentencing rather than committal for contempt [57].

As to (i), the appellant had been served with four witness statements, two of which were made by security staff and two by members of the public, relating to the appellant’s activities on the day of the alleged complaint [51]. No complaint was made at the adjourned hearing as to lack of clarity about the nature of the allegations which the appellant faced; late disclosure after the appeal hearing revealed that counsel had taken a tactical decision not to ask the judge spell out in full the specific actions constituting contempt [52-54]. Accordingly, there had been no real prejudice to the appellant in the failure to particularise the contempt [55]. Whilst the judge had made reference to s.41 CJA 1925 in her remarks, the matter did not proceed in the Crown Court as a summary prosecution for a breach of s.41. Instead, the judge had expressly stated that she found clear evidence of contempt. The fact that she supplemented her finding of criminal contempt with observations that the facts could also give rise to an offence under s.41 CJA 1925 does not invalidate her conclusions on criminal contempt [56]. Lastly, the judge had indeed used terminology of criminal sentencing and wrongly purported to pass a “sentence”. However, it was conceded that a court has power to suspend a committal to prison for contempt. This is undoubtedly what the court was seeking to achieve and it was what was understood by those representing the appellant at the time. It was also plain from the content of the broadcast outside Leeds Crown Court that the appellant understood that a second finding of contempt of court within 18 months of the Canterbury offence would risk implementing the suspended period of imprisonment [57]. There was no merit in the underlying proposed appeal. Time would not be extended. The court directs that the record be updated to use the language of committal and not criminal sentencing [59].

 Leeds

The application was brought 20 days out of time [5]. The appellant’s complaints were that: (i) the judge should not have proceeded as quickly as he did, initiating and completing proceedings that day [60]; (ii) no particulars of contempt were put to the appellant [64]; and (iii) insufficient mitigation was put forward as a result of the haste [68]. 

The court agrees that the judge should not have commenced the hearing of contempt proceedings that day. Once the appellant had removed the video from Facebook, there was no longer sufficient urgency to justify immediate proceedings [62]. In those circumstances it would have been preferable to adjourn, as had happened in the Canterbury proceedings. No particulars of the contempt were formulated or put to the appellant. There was a muddle over the nature of the contempt being considered. In both the short explanation given by the judge of the general nature of the alleged contempt and the sentencing remarks, there was reference to matters that could not been a breach of the section 4(2) order. [64]. The failure to follow Part 48 Crim PR was more than technical [66]. There was no clarity about what the appellant was admitting or on what basis he was being sentenced. Finally, further difficulties arose from the limited opportunity that counsel had to investigate mitigation [68]. There was little else which counsel could have done within the constraints under which he was working. The level of detail which could be provided to the court was very limited and there was no opportunity to obtain character references [69]. A sense of proportion must be retained. Where a custodial term of considerable length is being imposed, it should not usually occur so quickly after the conduct which is complained of [69]; a sentence of committal to immediate custody had been pronounced within five hours of the conduct taking place [8].

The order at Leeds Crown Court was also erroneously drawn up to suggest the appellant had been convicted of a criminal offence rather than having been committed for contempt of court [70]. Errors like this have serious consequences upon the classification of prisoners, resulting in the deprivation of privileges [74] and release on licence [75]. In this case, it also resulted in the erroneous imposition of a victim surcharge [76].

 The finding of contempt in Leeds is quashed [77]. All consequential orders fall away. The court remits the matter of alleged contempt at Leeds Crown Court to be heard again before a different judge [78]. The appellant is granted conditional bail pending the rehearing [86].
General guidance is given on contempt of court procedure [79-82].

References in square brackets are to paragraphs in the judgment.


Excerpt from the full judgement:


Leeds

60.  A central criticism advanced on behalf of the appellant of the proceedings in Leeds is that the judge was wrong to proceed to deal with the contempt as quickly as he did. We consider that there is merit in this point. In contrast to the procedure followed in Canterbury, where the appellant had over a week to secure representation and to prepare his response to the allegations against him, the appellant at Leeds was commencing a term of imprisonment of thirteen months within five hours of the conduct complained of. Such haste gave rise to a real risk that procedural safeguards would be overlooked, the nature of the contempt alleged would remain inadequately scrutinised and that points of significant mitigation would be missed. Those risks materialised.


Monday, July 23, 2018

Trump's tweet to Rouhani





According to Bernard Lewis, the Iranian mullahs could not care less about Mutually Assured Destruction once they get the bomb, or more accurately, MAD to them would be an inducement. But before they get the bomb they can still be deterred. So Trump has finally found a way to deal with them. A refreshing change from Obama brown nosing the ayatollahs.