A predominantly one-topic blog: how is it that the most imminent and lethal implication for humankind - the fact that the doctrine of "Mutually Assured Destruction" will not work with Iran - is not being discussed in our media? Until it is recognized that MAD is dead, the Iranian threat will be treated as a threat only to Israel and not as the global threat which it in fact is. A blog by Mladen Andrijasevic
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Monday, October 27, 2014
Friday, October 24, 2014
An interview with Israeli Defense Minister Moshe Yaalon
Lally
Weymouth is a senior associate editor at The Washington Post.
Israeli
Defense Minister Moshe Yaalon, known as a hawk, heightened U.S.-Israeli
tensions earlier this year by criticizing John Kerry, saying the U.S. secretary
of state had a “misplaced obsession and messianic fervor” about
the peace process. On a trip to the United States this past week during which
he met with Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel, Yaalon spoke with The Washington
Post’s Lally Weymouth about the threat he sees from Iran, the Islamic State
(also known as ISIS) and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Excerpts:
Q. You
caused quite a stir with your remarks about Secretary Kerry.
A. We
overcame that.
Secretary
Kerry recently said the lack of resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian issue is
leading to street anger and recruitment for the Islamic State. What is your
response?
Unfortunately,
we find the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is dominated by too many
misconceptions. We don’t find any linkage between the uprising in Tunisia, the
revolution in Egypt, the sectarian conflict in Iraq and the Israeli-Palestinian
conflict. Mainly, these come from the Sunni-Shia conflict, without any
connection to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
The
core of the conflict is their reluctance to recognize our right to exist as a
nation state of the Jewish people — whether it is [Palestinian Authority
President] Abu Mazen or his predecessor [Yasser] Arafat. There are many who
believe that just having some territorial concessions will conclude it. But I
don’t think this is right.
Will
territorial concessions bring peace?
No,
they would be another stage of the Palestinian conflict, as we experienced in the Gaza Strip. We disengaged from the Gaza
Strip to address their territorial grievances. They went on attacking us. The
conflict is about the existence of the Jewish state and not about the creation
of the Palestinian one. Any territory that was delivered to them after Oslo became
a safe haven for terrorists.
Bearing
that in mind, to conclude that after the [recent] military operation in Gaza
this is a time for another withdrawal from Judea and Samaria [the West Bank] is
irrational. If we withdraw now from Judea and Samaria, we might face another
Hamastan.
So you
think Hamas would take over the West Bank?
Sure.
We just recently intercepted a terror network in the area of Ramallah. We
arrested 96 Hamas terrorists.
They
were supposed to be staging a coup to overthrow Abu Mazen?
Yes.
They were operated and recruited by Saleh al-Arouri from Istanbul. We saved Abu
Mazen from them overthrowing him. It might have become a Hamas-governed entity
with Iranian arms.
Last
summer, you and Prime Minister [Benjamin] Netanyahu decided to limit the
operation in Gaza — not to reoccupy Gaza.
Yes.
Was
that the right decision?
Absolutely.
It was the right decision. From the very beginning, we understood it might be a
tremendous mistake to send our troops to take over and occupy the Gaza Strip.
That’s why we decided to avoid it and to direct our military operation toward
the endgame, which was the Egyptian initiative [a cease-fire with no
preconditions].
Why did
the operation take 51 days?
Hamas
is not marginal. It is a well-equipped militia and has 10,000 rockets, and the
know-how and indigenous capabilities to produce rockets [which they got] from
Iran. This is not just a terror organization.
How do
you see the threat from ISIS?
ISIS is
a new phenomenon, originating from al-Qaeda. This is not a threat for us. This
is a threat to the free world as they actually claim to [want to] defeat all
those who are not ready to follow their religious, Islamic way — whether they
are Muslims, Christians, Kurds, Alawites, Shias or Jews. The idea to confront
them by creating a coalition is an awakening. . . .
Hopefully the coalition led by the United States will
contain them.
Kobane [a Syrian town near the Turkish
border] is about to fall. The ground forces seem to be weak.
I hope
it is not too late to deal with it. Air superiority is very important.
It is
important, but is it enough?
It is
not enough. Don’t misunderstand me — I don’t recommend Western troops to be
deployed. But the troops on the ground, whether they are Kurds, Iraqi armed
forces or Syrian militias that are not extremists, should be supported by the
West in order to be able to defeat ISIS.
Is it
too late in Syria?
It is
never too late. Syria is a microcosm of the region. What we see now is
fragmentation, the collapse of the nation-state.
So you
see a breakup in Syria?
Yes. We
have Alawistan — an Alawite enclave led by President Bashar al-Assad, who
controls 25 percent of the Syrian territory. We have Syrian Kurdistan in the
northeastern part [of the country]. We have many Sunni enclaves. But the Sunnis
are divided — we have Muslim Brotherhood Sunnis, we have ISIS, we have Jabhat
al-Nusra. We have the Free Syrian Army, which we believe should be supported.
What is
Israel’s strategy in Syria?
We
don’t want to be involved. We enjoy a relatively calm situation on the border of
the Golan Heights. They understand that if they violate our sovereignty, we immediately respond.
How are
you going to ensure that in rebuilding Gaza, Hamas does not build more tunnels?
We
believe there is the potential to keep a calm situation along the border with
Gaza [since] Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad paid a heavy price [in] our
military operation last summer. We understand there is a problem in Gaza — an
economic problem, the need for reconstruction.
Part of
our interest is to pave the way for the Palestinian Authority to get into the
Gaza Strip. I’m not sure Abu Mazen is ready to take responsibility.
Right
now doesn’t the Palestinian Authority have responsibility only for the
crossings?
Not
yet. But the opening of the Rafah crossing point is conditioned on the
deployment of the Palestinian Authority troops. We proposed for them to be
deployed on the Palestinian side of our crossing points as well.
Do you
believe in a two-state solution?
You can
call it the new Palestinian empire. We don’t want to govern them, but it is not
going to be a regular state for many reasons.
What
does that mean — the Palestinian empire?
Autonomy.
It is going to be demilitarized.
In Gaza
and the West Bank?
It is
up to them. According to the agreement, they should be demilitarized. It is up
to Abu Mazen if he is able or if he wants to demilitarize Gaza. Otherwise, we
are not going to talk about any final settlement.
Is Abu
Mazen the best Palestinian leader you’re going to get?
I don’t
know, but he is not a partner for the two-state solution. He doesn’t recognize
the existence of the Jewish state.
He says
he is against violence.
Fine.
But this is a tactical consideration. He believes he might get more by what he
calls “political resistance” — going to the United Nations or to international
bodies to delegitimize us. He prefers it to violence because in his experience,
terror doesn’t pay off.
Is that
why you said Secretary Kerry should just get a Nobel Prize and go home? Do you
think the West just doesn’t get it?
I spoke
about misconceptions. It is a misunderstanding, without naming anyone. It might
be naivete or wishful thinking — ‘We the Westerners know what is good for the
Arabs.’ To believe that you can have democratization with elections . . . it is collapsing in
front of us. And part of it is ignorance, yes.
Israeli-U.S.
relations are in terrible shape. Prime Minister Netanyahu and President Obama
had a bad meeting this month. During the Gaza
operation, for the first time, missile shipments didn’t go through
automatically.
The
issue of Hellfire missiles has been solved. It was a bureaucratic issue.
It
doesn’t look like an unbreakable bond if, in the middle of a war, the
administration decides to review what has always been military-to-military arms
transfers.
I can
tell you that between the Pentagon and the Israel Defense Forces there is an
unbreakable bond.
What
about the politicians?
We have
disputes.
It
seems to be a deep dispute.
With
all the disputes, the United States is Israel’s strategic ally.
The Nov. 24 deadline for an Iranian
nuclear agreement is approaching. Prime Minister Netanyahu has said that no
deal is better than a bad deal. What do you hope comes out of these talks?
We are
concerned about the potential deal. Because the framework of this deal is about
how many centrifuges should this regime have. Why should they have the
indigenous capability to enrich uranium? If they need it for civilian purposes,
they can get enriched uranium from the United States or from Russia. Why do they
insist on having the indigenous capability? Because they still have the
aspiration to have a nuclear bomb.
With a
bad deal — saying, ‘We will keep this regime from having a bomb for a year or
year and a half’ — what does that mean? What about the missile delivery
systems, which are not discussed? Why should they have missiles ready to adopt
nuclear warheads?
And
they do?
Yes,
hundreds of them. And what about their being a rogue regime instigating terror
all over the Middle East and beyond? They are not involved in Afghanistan,
Iraq, Syria or Yemen to serve American interests. This is not discussed. By
rehabilitating the economy, they might feel confident to go on with these rogue
activities, and at a certain point decide to break out from the deal and to
have a bomb. That’s why our prime minister said that no deal is better than a
bad deal.
And you
agree with him?
Of
course. In a deal they are going to get rid of any pressure. In the end, we
should be able to defend ourselves by ourselves.
Does
that mean Israel alone would consider using a military option?
It’s
enough to say we should be ready to defend ourselves by ourselves.
As long
as Benjamin Netanyahu wants to run for office, will you not run for prime
minister?
As long
as he is going the right way, why should I challenge him?
Do you
intend to run for prime minister one day?
I don’t
know. If the people of Israel want me, I will have to consider it.
Geert Wilders on “The West’s Battle for Freedom.”
In the last three days a 3-month-old baby
girl was murdered in Jerusalem, a Canadian soldier was murdered in Ottawa and a
police officer attacked with a hatchet in New York City. To every thinking person
it is obvious that we have a problem, but governments continue to obfuscate.
Not Geert Wilders
Barack Obama, bewildered bystander
President Barack Obama pauses as he speaks to the media about the government’s Ebola response in the Oval Office of the White House, Wednesday, Oct. 22, 2014
There’s
only one problem with this pose, so obligingly transcribed for him by the
Times. It’s his government. He’s president. Has been for six
years. Yet Barack Obama reflexively insists on playing the shocked outsider
when something goes wrong within his own administration.
The
IRS? “It’s inexcusable, and Americans are right to be angry about it, and I am
angry about it,” he thundered in May 2013 when the story
broke of the agency targeting conservative groups. “I will not
tolerate this kind of behavior in any agency, but especially in the IRS.”
Except
that within nine months, Obama had grown far more
tolerant, retroactively declaring this to be a phony scandal without “a smidgen
of corruption.”
Obamacare
rollout? “Nobody is more frustrated by that than I am,” said an aggrieved Obama about the botching of
the central element of his signature legislative achievement. “Nobody is madder
than me.”
Veterans
Affairs scandal? Presidential chief of staff Denis McDonough explained: “Secretary [Eric]
Shinseki said yesterday . . . that he’s mad
as hell and the president is madder than hell.” A nice touch — taking
anger to the next level.
The
president himself declared: “I will not stand for it.”
But since the administration itself said the problem was long-standing, indeed
predating Obama, this means he had stood for it for 5½ years.
The one
scandal where you could credit the president with genuine anger and obliviousness
involves the recent breaches of White House Secret Service protection. The Washington Post described the first lady
and president as “angry and upset,” and no doubt they were. But the first
Secret Service scandal — the hookers of Cartagena — evinced this
from the president: “If it turns out that some of the allegations that have
been made in the press are confirmed, then of course I’ll be angry.” An
innovation in ostentatious distancing: future conditional indignation.
These
shows of calculated outrage — and thus distance — are becoming not just
unconvincing but unamusing. In our system, the president is both head of state
and head of government. Obama seems to enjoy the monarchial parts, but when it
comes to the actual business of running government, he shows little interest
and even less aptitude.
His
principal job, after all, is to administer the government and to get the right
people to do it. (That’s why we typically send governors rather than senators
to the White House.) That’s called management. Obama had never managed anything
before running for the biggest management job on earth. It shows.
What
makes the problem even more acute is that Obama represents not just the party
of government but a grandiose conception of government as the prime mover of
social and economic life. The very theme of his presidency is that government
can and should be trusted to do great things. And therefore society should be
prepared to hand over large chunks of its operations — from health care
(one-sixth of the economy) to carbon regulation down to free contraception — to
the central administrative state.
But
this presupposes a Leviathan not just benign but competent. When it then turns
out that vast, faceless bureaucracies tend to be incapable, inadequate,
hopelessly inefficient and often corrupt, Obama resorts to expressions of angry
surprise.
He
must. He’s not simply protecting his own political fortunes. He’s trying to
protect faith in the entitlement state by portraying its repeated failures as
shocking anomalies.
Unfortunately,
the pretense has the opposite effect. It produces not reassurance but anxiety.
Obama’s determined detachment conveys the feeling that nobody’s home. No one
leading. Not even from behind.
A poll conducted two weeks ago showed that
64 percent of likely voters (in competitive races) think that “things in the
U.S. feel like they are out of control.” This is one degree of anxiety beyond
thinking the country is on the wrong track. That’s been negative for years, and
it’s a reflection of failed policies that in principle can be changed.
Regaining control, on the other hand, is a far dicier proposition.
With
events in the saddle and a sense of disorder growing — the summer border
crisis, Ferguson, the rise of the Islamic State, Ebola — the nation expects
from the White House not miracles but competence. At a minimum, mere presence.
An observer presidency with its bewildered-bystander pose only adds to the
unease.
Read
more from Charles
Krauthammer’s archive, follow him on
Twitteror subscribe to his
updates on Facebook.
The bewildered bystander president who does not even lead from
behind, yet no one sees this in relation to the greatest
threat - Iran
Wednesday, October 22, 2014
Tuesday, October 21, 2014
Moshe Ya'alon on Charlie Rose - 54 min interview
I watched the full interview on Bloomberg TV. In short, it
was an exchange between Moshe Ya'alon who understands the Middle East and what
jihad is all about, and Charlie Rose who
does not. The gap in understanding is enormous and fundamental and it
reflects the gap in understanding between the Obama administration and the
Netanyahu government as well.
The crux of the
whole interview is this exchange ~ 23 min into the video
Charlie Rose: a good deal for you is that they
have no...
Moshe Ya'alon: no indigenous capability to enrich uranium
Charlie Rose: and by that meaning no capacity
in Iran to enrich uranium
Moshe Ya'alon: yeah
Charlie Rose: that's the only thing that
Moshe Ya'alon
that is the main issue now, of
course the delivery systems should be
discussed
Charlie Rose: but it is not discussed as you said
Moshe Ya'alon: yeah, the terror activities generated by Iran is nor discussed, but the
main point we should be focused on is full cessation of the fuel cycle
Charlie Rose: but they are not going to do
it
Moshe Ya'alon: so let' wait and see what will happen. At the end we understand that Israel
should be ready to defend itself by itself
Israel's Moshe Ya'alon on Iran's Nukes (Oct. 20, 2014) | Charlie Rose
Israel's Moshe Ya'alon
on a "Two State" Solution (Oct. 20, 2014) | Charlie Rose
Israel's Moshe Ya'alon on
"Taking Out" the ISIS Leader (Oct. 20, 2014) | Charlie Rose
Other posts with Moshe Ya'alon
Monday, October 20, 2014
‘Step by step’ toward a nuclear Iran
Iran
is being allowed to acquire the ability to produce atom bombs, and the West is
obsessing over Ebola.
By RUTHIE
BLUM 10/19/2014 21:31
While
Americans began to panic last week about the spread of Ebola in the United
States, and Israelis mourned the tragic loss of young hikers in an avalanche in
Nepal, something with far more lethal consequences was taking place in Europe
that barely elicited a yawn.
Representatives of Iran and the P5+1 countries (Russia, China, France, Britain, the US and Germany) met in Vienna to hold yet another round of talks on the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program. Key players in these negotiations were Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, European Union foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton and US Secretary of State John Kerry.
Though this was the eighth such gathering since the beginning of the year aimed at “ironing out” differences between the sides, it was highly significant.
In November, an interim arrangement was reached, according to which a final deal on curbing Iran’s nuclear ambitions would be achieved during the six-month period between January and July.
Iran had no intention of curtailing its nuclear capabilities, but was keen on the easing of sanctions, and it was rewarded for continuing to engage in bogus negotiations, with none of the summits producing results. They did, however, enable the mullah-led regime in Tehran to keep the centrifuges spinning.
When the only progress made by the summer deadline was in uranium enrichment, the parties agreed to an extension of talks until November 24. What this really meant was that Iran was given an additional four months in which to proceed on its course toward regional hegemony and world domination. It also provided Iranian President Hassan Rouhani with the further justification he needed to persuade Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei that his stance as a “moderate” was paying off.
With a mere few weeks to go until the new deadline, neither side says it has an interest in prolonging negotiations past November. Rouhani gave a televised address ahead of this week’s talks to tell the Iranian people that reaching a deal by the end of next month would be possible.
Kerry was less committal. “Step by step,” he told reporters on Wednesday, before entering into six hours of talks, described by another State Department official as “about whether Iran is willing to take verifiable actions to show that their program is for peaceful purposes.”
To remove the main obstacle to a final deal, Kerry proposed that Iran could keep its nuclear infrastructure if it would agree to reduce the quantity and quality of uranium enrichment required to create atomic weapons in the near future.
Iran, which denies its nuclear facilities are military in nature, is not happy with that offer.
One party to the talks that may help to break this impasse is Russia, which currently supplies fuel for Iran’s nuclear reactor. Tehran has been discussing the possibility of shipping some of its low-enriched uranium to Moscow for “civilian” use in the future.
Hmm.
It’s interesting that as talks kicked off in Austria on Wednesday, two Russian warships left the northern Iranian port of Anzali, following a three-day Iranian-Russian naval exercise in the Caspian Sea.
Rather than viewing these disturbing developments with trepidation, however, the world is preoccupied with the efforts of the US-led campaign – dubbed “Coherent Resolve” – to defeat Islamic State (IS) in Syria and Iraq.
In fact, because IS is a Sunni organization, the West now sees the Shi’ite-dominated Iranian regime as a potential ally.
Worse than that, Iran is now being viewed as an up-and-coming destination for business.
Indeed, early last week, The New York Times began to promote a $6,995 tour to Iran, led by writer and former Paris correspondent Elaine Sciolino.
“Journey 2,500 years back in time to discover the ancient secrets of Persia on this 13-day itinerary incorporating some of the most well preserved archaeological sites in the world,” reads the ad, which fails to mention that such a trip could end in imprisonment, torture and death for participants who arouse the ire of the Revolutionary Guards.
On Thursday, as Kerry was pleading with Zarif to illustrate Iranian good faith, hundreds of international investors gathered in London to attend the “1st Europe- Iran Forum.” It was a “meet and greet” the likes of which has not taken place since the 1979 Iranian Revolution that ushered in the Islamists. You know, those who are still in power and declare: “Death to America, Europe and Israel.”
Still, former UK foreign secretary Jack Straw was one of the speakers at the event, whose purpose was for Iranian and European businesspeople to forge connections for investments in the Islamic Republic, as soon as a final diplomatic deal is reached on its nuclear weapons program.
Yes, “step by step,” Iran is being allowed to acquire the ability to produce atom bombs, and the West is obsessing over Ebola.
The writer is the author of To Hell in a Handbasket: Carter, Obama, and the ‘Arab Spring.’
Representatives of Iran and the P5+1 countries (Russia, China, France, Britain, the US and Germany) met in Vienna to hold yet another round of talks on the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program. Key players in these negotiations were Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, European Union foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton and US Secretary of State John Kerry.
Though this was the eighth such gathering since the beginning of the year aimed at “ironing out” differences between the sides, it was highly significant.
In November, an interim arrangement was reached, according to which a final deal on curbing Iran’s nuclear ambitions would be achieved during the six-month period between January and July.
Iran had no intention of curtailing its nuclear capabilities, but was keen on the easing of sanctions, and it was rewarded for continuing to engage in bogus negotiations, with none of the summits producing results. They did, however, enable the mullah-led regime in Tehran to keep the centrifuges spinning.
When the only progress made by the summer deadline was in uranium enrichment, the parties agreed to an extension of talks until November 24. What this really meant was that Iran was given an additional four months in which to proceed on its course toward regional hegemony and world domination. It also provided Iranian President Hassan Rouhani with the further justification he needed to persuade Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei that his stance as a “moderate” was paying off.
With a mere few weeks to go until the new deadline, neither side says it has an interest in prolonging negotiations past November. Rouhani gave a televised address ahead of this week’s talks to tell the Iranian people that reaching a deal by the end of next month would be possible.
Kerry was less committal. “Step by step,” he told reporters on Wednesday, before entering into six hours of talks, described by another State Department official as “about whether Iran is willing to take verifiable actions to show that their program is for peaceful purposes.”
To remove the main obstacle to a final deal, Kerry proposed that Iran could keep its nuclear infrastructure if it would agree to reduce the quantity and quality of uranium enrichment required to create atomic weapons in the near future.
Iran, which denies its nuclear facilities are military in nature, is not happy with that offer.
One party to the talks that may help to break this impasse is Russia, which currently supplies fuel for Iran’s nuclear reactor. Tehran has been discussing the possibility of shipping some of its low-enriched uranium to Moscow for “civilian” use in the future.
Hmm.
It’s interesting that as talks kicked off in Austria on Wednesday, two Russian warships left the northern Iranian port of Anzali, following a three-day Iranian-Russian naval exercise in the Caspian Sea.
Rather than viewing these disturbing developments with trepidation, however, the world is preoccupied with the efforts of the US-led campaign – dubbed “Coherent Resolve” – to defeat Islamic State (IS) in Syria and Iraq.
In fact, because IS is a Sunni organization, the West now sees the Shi’ite-dominated Iranian regime as a potential ally.
Worse than that, Iran is now being viewed as an up-and-coming destination for business.
Indeed, early last week, The New York Times began to promote a $6,995 tour to Iran, led by writer and former Paris correspondent Elaine Sciolino.
“Journey 2,500 years back in time to discover the ancient secrets of Persia on this 13-day itinerary incorporating some of the most well preserved archaeological sites in the world,” reads the ad, which fails to mention that such a trip could end in imprisonment, torture and death for participants who arouse the ire of the Revolutionary Guards.
On Thursday, as Kerry was pleading with Zarif to illustrate Iranian good faith, hundreds of international investors gathered in London to attend the “1st Europe- Iran Forum.” It was a “meet and greet” the likes of which has not taken place since the 1979 Iranian Revolution that ushered in the Islamists. You know, those who are still in power and declare: “Death to America, Europe and Israel.”
Still, former UK foreign secretary Jack Straw was one of the speakers at the event, whose purpose was for Iranian and European businesspeople to forge connections for investments in the Islamic Republic, as soon as a final diplomatic deal is reached on its nuclear weapons program.
Yes, “step by step,” Iran is being allowed to acquire the ability to produce atom bombs, and the West is obsessing over Ebola.
The writer is the author of To Hell in a Handbasket: Carter, Obama, and the ‘Arab Spring.’
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