SECRETARY BLINKEN:
Mr. President, this council was convened today to discuss the implementation of
the Minsk Agreements, a goal that we all share, despite Russia’s persistent
violations. These agreements, which were negotiated in 2014 and 2015 and
signed by Russia, remain the basis for the peace process to resolve the
conflict in eastern Ukraine.
This council’s primary responsibility – the very reason
for its creation – is the preservation of peace and security. As we meet
today, the most immediate threat to peace and security is Russia’s looming
aggression against Ukraine.
The stakes go far beyond Ukraine. This is a moment
of peril for the lives and safety of millions of people, as well as for the
foundation of the United Nations Charter and the rules-based international
order that preserves stability worldwide. This crisis directly affects
every member of this council and every country in the world.
Because the basic principles that sustain peace and
security – principles that were enshrined in the wake of two world wars and a
Cold War – are under threat. The principle that one country cannot change
the borders of another by force. The principle that one country cannot
dictate another’s choices or policies, or with whom it will associate.
The principle of national sovereignty.
This is the exact kind of crisis that the United Nations
– and specifically this Security Council – was created to prevent.
We must address what Russia is doing right now to
Ukraine.
Over the past months, without provocation or
justification, Russia has amassed more than 150,000 troops around Ukraine’s
borders, in Russia, Belarus, occupied Crimea. Russia says it’s drawing
down those forces. We do not see that happening on the ground. Our
information indicates clearly that these forces – including ground troops,
aircraft, ships – are preparing to launch an attack against Ukraine in the
coming days.
We don’t know precisely how things will play out, but
here’s what the world can expect to see unfold. In fact, it’s unfolding
right now, today, as Russia takes steps down the path to war and reissued the
threat of military action.
First, Russia plans to manufacture a pretext for its
attack. This could be a violent event that Russia will blame on Ukraine,
or an outrageous accusation that Russia will level against the Ukrainian
Government. We don’t know exactly the form it will take. It could
be a fabricated so-called “terrorist” bombing inside Russia, the invented
discovery of a mass grave, a staged drone strike against civilians, or a fake –
even a real – attack using chemical weapons. Russia may describe this
event as ethnic cleansing or a genocide, making a mockery of a concept that we
in this chamber do not take lightly, nor do I do take lightly based on my
family history.
In the past few days, Russian media has already begun to
spread some of these false alarms and claims, to maximize public outrage, to
lay the groundwork for an invented justification for war. Today, that drumbeat
has only intensified in Russia’s state-controlled media. We’ve heard some
of these baseless allegations from Russian-backed speakers here today.
Second, in response to this manufactured provocation, the
highest levels of the Russian Government may theatrically convene emergency
meetings to address the so-called crisis. The government will issue
proclamations declaring that Russia must respond to defend Russian citizens or
ethnic Russians in Ukraine.
Next, the attack is planned to begin. Russian
missiles and bombs will drop across Ukraine. Communications will be
jammed. Cyberattacks will shut down key Ukrainian institutions.
After that, Russian tanks and soldiers will advance on
key targets that have already been identified and mapped out in detailed
plans. We believe these targets include Russia’s capital –Ukraine’s capital,
Kyiv, a city of 2.8 million people.
And conventional attacks are not all that Russia plans to
inflict upon the people of Ukraine. We have information that indicates
Russia will target specific groups of Ukrainians.
We’ve been warning the Ukrainian Government of all that
is coming. And here today, we are laying it out in great detail, with the
hope that by sharing what we know with the world, we can influence Russia to
abandon the path of war and choose a different path while there’s still time.
Now, I am mindful that some have called into question our
information, recalling previous instances where intelligence ultimately did not
bear out. But let me be clear: I am here today, not to start a war, but
to prevent one. The information I’ve presented here is validated by what
we’ve seen unfolding in plain sight before our eyes for months. And
remember that while Russia has repeatedly derided our warnings and alarms as
melodrama and nonsense, they have been steadily amassing more than 150,000 troops
on Ukraine’s borders, as well as the capabilities to conduct a massive military
assault.
It isn’t just us seeing this: Allies and partners see the
same thing. And Russia hasn’t only been hearing from us. The
international chorus has grown louder and louder.
If Russia doesn’t invade Ukraine, then we will be
relieved that Russia changed course and proved our predictions wrong.
That would be a far better outcome than the course we’re currently on.
And we will gladly accept any criticism that anyone directs at us.
As President Biden said, this would be a war of
choice. And if Russia makes that choice, we’ve been clear, along with
Allies and partners, that our response will be sharp and decisive.
President Biden reiterated that forcefully earlier this week.
There is another choice Russia can still make, if there
is any truth to its claim that it is committed to diplomacy.
Diplomacy is the only responsible way to resolve this
crisis. An essential part of this is through implementation of the Minsk
agreements, the subject of our session today.
There are a series of commitments that Russia and Ukraine
made under Minsk, with the OSCE and the Normandy Format partners involved as
well.
If Russia is prepared to sit with the Ukrainian
Government and work through the process of implementing these commitments, our
friends in France and Germany stand ready to convene senior-level discussions
in the Normandy Format to settle these issues. Ukraine is ready for
this. And we stand fully ready to support the parties.
Progress toward resolving the Donbas crisis through the
Minsk Agreements can reinforce the broader discussions on security issues that
we’re prepared to engage in with Russia, in coordination with our Allies and
partners.
More than three weeks ago, we provided Russia with a
paper that detailed concrete, reciprocal steps that we can take in the near
term to address our respective concerns and advance the collective security
interests of Russia, the United States, and our European partners and allies.
This morning, we received a response, which we are evaluating.
Earlier today, I sent a letter to Russia’s Foreign
Minister Sergey Lavrov proposing that we meet next week in Europe, following on
our talks in recent weeks, to discuss the steps that we can take to resolve
this crisis without conflict. We are also proposing meetings of the
NATO-Russia Council and the OSCE Permanent Council.
These meetings can pave the way for a summit of key
leaders, in the context of de-escalation, to reach understandings on our mutual
security concerns. As lead diplomats for our nations, we have a
responsibility to make every effort for diplomacy to succeed, to leave no
diplomatic stone unturned.
If Russia is committed to diplomacy, we are presenting
every opportunity for it to demonstrate that commitment.
I have no doubt that the response to my remarks here
today will be more dismissals from the Russian Government about the United
States stoking hysteria or that it has “no plans” to invade Ukraine.
So let me make this simple. The Russian Government can
announce today – with no qualification, equivocation, or deflection – that
Russia will not invade Ukraine. State it clearly. State it plainly
to the world. And then demonstrate it by sending your troops, your tanks,
your planes back to their barracks and hangars and sending your diplomats to
the negotiating table.
In the coming days, the world will remember that
commitment – or the refusal to make it. I yield the floor.
