A new national security plan says avoid risky diplomatic
escapades and prepare for war.
At a much darker hour in Jewish history, prior to the UN
vote in 1947, David Ben-Gurion said: “We hold no illusions, but do not despair.
For us Jews, and particularly Zionists, two things are forbidden: easy optimism
and sterile pessimism.”
That dictum, “no illusions, no despair,” is the headline
of a national security policy plan for Israel’s new government that will be
released next week by the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS).
At the basis of the plan’s 14 concrete policy recommendations
is the assumption that Israel must be ready for war on three fronts against an
Iranian-led coalition. This means preventing the emergence of an Iranian war
machine in Syria and Iranian long-range missile bases in Iraq; presenting a
credible capacity to strike Iranian nuclear targets and the ability to
withstand an intense missile war; and preparing ground forces capable of swift
maneuvers and attaining decisive outcomes (“mowing the grass”) in the two
Palestinian arenas.
All this will test the cohesion of Israeli society, the
strength of the IDF, and Israel’s diplomatic agility. Therefore, say JISS
fellows, the new government must nurture a spirit of unity and national purpose
by building a policy consensus as broad as possible.
Among other things, this means avoiding risky diplomatic
escapades like unilateral withdrawals from parts of the West Bank, withdrawals
that would unnecessarily and unjustifiably tear the country apart while feeding
unrealistic Palestinian expectations – without any real diplomatic reward for
Israel.
“Indefinitely managing the conflict with the Palestinians
is not a cowardly choice by hapless political and military leaders, but a
rational choice,” write the JISS fellows. “Especially when the Iranian
challenge looms larger than ever on Israel’s horizons.”
To this I add: Judicious conflict management requires a
steady hand at the helm of state, and self-confidence in the justice of
Israel’s long-term interests. Most of all, it requires patience.
As for the extension of Israeli law to settlements in
Judea and Samaria, here too the JISS plan urges restraint. “No action should be
taken until the Trump administration peace initiative has been exhausted; and
even then, Israeli moves should adhere to the contours of broad national
consensus” (meaning the settlement blocs, the Jordan Valley and other key
strategic areas).
The big exception to this rule is Jerusalem. Israel’s
national security requires control over Jerusalem and its very broad environs.
Reinforcing Jerusalem should be a high priority, with the government acting to
bolster the Zionist majority in the city by massive building in the E-1
quadrant (despite Palestinian and European objections) and linking the city to
Ma’aleh Adumim and eventually to the Jordan Valley.
The plan also recommends that Arab parts of the city be
governed more firmly and fairly. This means that resolute action needs to be
taken against radical elements who seek to change the status quo on the Temple
Mount, and against foreign elements (like Turkey and the European Union) who
undermine Israel’s sovereignty in the Jewish people’s historical capital. At
the same time, the government should encourage greater integration of eastern
Jerusalem Arabs in Israeli life through investment in infrastructure and
education.
JISS FELLOWS say that Israel should welcome the so-called
“Deal of the Century” about to be unveiled by Washington and agree to negotiate
on its basis. The reason for this is simple: Hopefully, the Trump plan will
upend stale “common wisdom” regarding the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and
offer more realistic contours. (This is often termed EKP – the “Everybody Knows
Paradigm” for Israeli-Palestinian peace, something like the “Clinton
Parameters.”) In any case, Israel must be ready for a security deterioration
if, as expected, Palestinian leadership rejects the American initiative.
Other diplomatic and defense recommendations in the JISS
plan are to prioritize relations with Egypt and Jordan while seeking new
partnerships in the Arab world; exact a price for Erdogan’s provocations and
bolster alliances in the eastern Mediterranean; preserve bipartisan support for
Israel in the US; maintain active dialogue and deconfliction channels with
Russia; act boldly to find European anchors to negate hostile attitudes in
Brussels; tread carefully amidst rising tensions in Asia; and enhance Israel’s
diplomatic toolbox.
The latter point bears elaboration. JISS fellows give
very high marks to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for greatly expanding
Israel’s global diplomatic standing, including enhanced ties with Russia,
China, India, Eastern European countries and African and South American
countries. But capitalizing on Israel’s opportunities in the international
arena requires a strengthening of the professional Israeli foreign service.
This should include appointment of a full-time foreign
minister; a return to the Foreign Ministry of professional units dispersed
among other ministries; the allocation of additional budgets for diplomacy; the
enhancement of MASHAV (Israel’s foreign aid agency) and the integration of
Israeli (and Jewish) NGOs in aid projects overseas; and training cadres of
professionals who can communicate with an increasingly attentive audience in
the Arabic-speaking world.
The Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security was
established in 2017 to express a realist strategic worldview. It promotes the
Jewish people’s historical connection to the Land of Israel “as a central
component of security and national identity,” and advances “pragmatic policies
that keep Israel strong and will lead to stable diplomatic arrangements in the
long term.”
Among its leaders are Prof. Efraim Inbar, Maj.-Gen.
(res.) Yaakov Amidror (the Anne and Greg Rosshandler Senior Fellow), Maj.-Gen.
(res.) Yair Golan, Col. (res.) Dr. Eran Lerman, Mrs. Micky Aharonson, Dr. David
Koren, Dr. Joshua Krasna, Dr. Yossi Mansharof, Dr. Emmanuel Navon, Dr. Uzi
Rubin, Dr. Jonathan Spyer, myself and others.
My sense is that the Israeli public has long hankered for
expert analysis that would validate its healthy conservative instincts in
matters of war and peace. The Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security is
the answer to this need. Thus, it is not surprising that the key word in the
JISS national security plan is “caution.”
Israel is a strong country and its strategic position is
better than ever. Nevertheless, it still faces significant security challenges,
primarily from the Iranian regime and its proxies, alongside a violent and
intractable conflict with the Palestinians. Therefore, the IDF must be geared
for war. This is the ultimate test for Israeli society, too.
The writer is vice president of the Jerusalem Institute
for Strategy and Security, jiss.org.il. His personal site is
davidmweinberg.com.
***
My comment:
I am not sure if I fully agree with “JISS FELLOWS say that
Israel should welcome the so-called “Deal of the Century” ” As I wrote from
my mamad three weeks ago, while I could hear the booms of the exploding
scuds:
“So
the real question is how does the Trump Peace Plan deal with the fact that the
followers of Islamic ideology would always try to impose their Shari’a law on
everyone else?”
I
would wait for the “Deal of the Century” to be unveiled first.
