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Wednesday, July 2, 2025

Marco Rubio from 2015 on Iran’s apocalyptic vision of the future

Had I had seen this before, I would have been less worried in the period before June 13, 2025, about the future of humankind.  The real question is why Marco Rubio as Secretary of State never, ever mentioned Iran’s apocalyptic vision of the future and the 12th Imam, the Mahdi.




22:47   We have not spent enough time describing to the American people the true nature of ISIS and our next Secretary of State needs to be someone that understands it.   ISIS has a monthly publication, it's called Dabiq.  D-a-b-i-q. It’s an online publication. I don't encourage you to subscribe because then people might  wonder about you. [laughter]  But Dabiq  is not some name they pulled out of a hat.  Dabiq  is the name of a village of a small city in Syria and the reason why they named it after that city is because according to their interpretation of prophecy they believe that there is going to be a final apocalyptic showdown between the West and Islam in the city of Dabiq. They  believe that it is their calling to trigger this apocalyptic showdown and therefore when they recruit fighters, what they are recruiting them for is to be a part of this army that is going to trigger this final showdown between the West and Islam, that Islam will win and then the whole world will be governed under their set of rules led by the emergence of the 12th Imam the Mahdi, their their messianic figure.


Why is this important for us to understand and why is that important for the next Secretary of State to understand? Because when you understand that, you realize these are not people you can negotiate with. These are not people that are going to go out of business, these are not individuals that are disgruntled or unemployed, these are not people that are upset because American troops were deployed in Iraq. These are individuals with an apocalyptic vision of the future and they will not stop until they feel they have succeeded in triggering this apocalypse. It, by the way, similar to the views held by the Ayatollah of Iran and so when people that have an apocalyptic vision of the future are growing in their capabilities in the  case of ISIS,  or trying to acquire a nuclear weapon in the case of Iran, you understand why it is that in many cases diplomacy and engagement does not work and in the case of ISIS has no chance of working. We face a very fundamental choice - either they win or we win. There is no other possible outcome [applause] and the next Secretary of State better be someone that understands this. 


Saturday, June 21, 2025

How The West Enabled The Iran Axis to Grow Unchecked

 Ambassador Michael Oren quotes Bernard Lewis

The Winston Marshall Show

5:55 Michael Oren: What happens when this country, this malign country, gets hold of a nuclear weapon? What are they  going to do? And you have to proceed under the assumption that, hey,  they are going to use it!  This is not like the Cold War, this is not mutually assured destruction where one  side has nuclear weapons, the other side has nuclear weapons, and they have a certain logic that prevents them from using it. I did part of my education at Princeton and my professor was this wonderful professor named Bernard Lewis, British … 


Winston Marshall: Really? I am a huge fan. I have several of his books.  


Michael Oren: He was my professor, and he used to always say to me: Michael,  Mutually Assured Destruction for the Iran regime is not deterrence, it’s an incentive.  Like that line? I wish I had made up that line. 

Monday, June 9, 2025

Saturday, June 7, 2025

President Trump’s fuzzy two-month deadline

 

Neville Chamberlain
Emperor Franz Joseph

Donald Trump

 

When is this two-month deadline for a U.S.-Iran nuclear deal?  It isn't clear whether the two-month clock began from the time Trump’s letter was delivered to Iran ( by Wikoff to Araghchi via UAE president Mohammed Bin Zaye), or from the time the negotiations started. But then I found a reference in JINSA: “June 11 marks, by the most conservative interpretation, President Donald Trump’s self-imposed two-month deadline for a U.S.-Iran nuclear deal.”  


It is quite bizarre that the White House never explicitly stated the date. It may give some flexibility, but this fuzzy approach takes away from the significance of the moment.  After all, Austria’s ultimatum to Serbia demanded an answer by July 25, 1914 at 5 pm and Chamberlain's ultimatum to Germany put September 3, 1939  at 11 am  as the time a state of war would exist between Great Britain and Germany unless Germany withdrew their troops from Poland. 

 


Thursday, June 5, 2025

Accord avec l'Iran ou pas ? Comprenons-nous les enjeux ?

 

Donald Trump 
Bernard Lewis 
















Pourquoi Israël se retrouve-t-il toujours coincé avec des présidents américains qui considèrent l'Iran comme une menace existentielle uniquement pour Israël, et non pour les États-Unis ? Le message de Bernard Lewis, selon lequel l'Iran pourrait utiliser la bombe quelles qu'en soient les conséquences, ne passe pas. L'administration Trump devrait clarifier son point de vue sur la déclaration de Bernard Lewis : « Pour ceux qui partagent cet état d'esprit, l'ADM n'est pas une contrainte ; c'est une incitation… »


Bernard Lewis aurait pu se tromper. Pourtant, personne n'a jamais contesté ses propos de 2009. Au contraire, des spécialistes sur l’Islam partagent son avis, comme Raphael Israeli et Harold Rhode. Il n'y a jamais eu de conférence d'experts pour discuter de la validité de l'avertissement de Lewis.

 

Les États-Unis et Israël ont commis de terribles erreurs de jugement et n'ont pas su anticiper les 11 septembre et 7 octobre. Cela ne doit plus se reproduire. Et pourtant, nous attendons tous avec impatience de voir quel type d'accord le président Trump va proposer à l'Iran.


Si un avion de ligne présentait un défaut augmentant sa probabilité d’écrasement de 3 %, il serait cloué au sol, les passagers refuseraient de voler à bord et les médias n'arrêteraient pas d'en parler. Nous nous approchons d'une décision qui pourrait impacter l'avenir de notre civilisation, alors que la plupart des habitants de cette planète n'en sont même pas conscients! Notre civilisation est folle!  


 

  


Friday, May 30, 2025

Iran Deal or no Iran Deal. Do we understand what is at stake?

 

Bernard Lewis
Donald Trump












Why does Israel always end up getting stuck with American presidents who believe that Iran is an existential  threat only to Israel and not to the US as well?  Somehow Bernard Lewis’s message that Iran may use the bomb regardless of the consequences for Iran is not getting through.  The Trump administration should clarify what they think of Bernard Lewis’s “ For people with this mindset, M.A.D. is not a constraint; it is an inducement…”

Bernard Lewis could have been wrong. And yet no one ever objected to what he said in 2009.  On the contrary, there are scholars of Islam who agree with him, like Raphael Israeli and  Harold Rhode .  There has never been a conference of experts to discuss the validity of Lewis’s warning. 

The US and Israel made horrible errors of judgement and failed to anticipate 9/11 and 10/7.  That must not happen again. And yet we all are just sitting and waiting to hear what kind of deal president Trump will come up with Iran. 

If an airliner had a defect which would increase the probability of it crashing to 3 percent - the airliner would be grounded, people would refuse to fly on it and the media would not stop reporting on it.  We are approaching a decision which may impact the future of our civilization while most of the people on this planet are not even aware of the problem! We are an insane civilization!   



Wednesday, May 28, 2025

Douglas Murray: A conflict like no other in human history

 



7:32  Show me one other war in human history where the side that has been attacked, Israel, is expected not to just pump energy into the place that has attacked it, but to keep allowing as much food as the citizens need to sustain them. Would that happen in any other conflict? I can't think of one historically. I’ve asked many historians if they could think of one.  And this is the first conflict in human history where the side that has been attacked and tried to be annihilated  by a terrorist  group is expected to make sure  that among other things as well as not harming anyone on enemy territory, they make sure that the enemy in question are fully nourished.