“Finally, after many months of attentiveness, I reached my conclusion. In the absence of a high-profile provocation – an attack on a U.S. aircraft carrier, for example – the United States would not use force against Iran. Rather, the administration would remain committed to diplomatically resolving the Iranian nuclear issue, even at the risk of reaching a deal unacceptable to Israel. And If Israel took matters into its own hands, the White House would keep its distance and offer to defend Israel only if it were counterstruck by a hundred thousand Hezbollah missiles.”
Oren sensed that he could make a difference and warn of the disastrous consequences of Obama’s appeasement of Iran and that the time to do that is NOW. And he did it. This book and his three Op-Eds in the WSJ, LA Times and Foreign Policy accomplished more than all the effort of all the Israeli columnists and politicians combined, apart from Netanyahu’s speech in front of the joint meeting of Congress. But paradoxically, that was the move Oren opposed and even after reading the book I still do not understand his motives for opposing Netanyahu’s speech. After all, the only way to stop President Barack Obama’s insane Iran deal was to warn Congress.
It is interesting that Michael Oren managed to do what Bret Stephens, Martin Sherman, Ari Shavit and other Israeli and American analysts never did – quote Bernard Lewis on MAD and Iran! Why is the world ignoring the opinion on Iran and MAD by a leading western scholar of Islam is still a mystery.
The chasm between the US and Israeli analysts, between the Obama administration and the Netanyahu government, between American Jews and Israelis in analyzing the Arab Spring, Palestinian peace negotiations and most importantly of all, Iran, is alarming and is described in detail. It is a frustrating political roller coaster drive.
I do not believe that there was ever a book which is more relevant to the political situation of the time and one which has a better potential to make a dent. The only comparison I can think of is Ayaan Hirsi Ali’s Heretic, Matthew Kroenig’s A Time to Attack and the warnings Winston Churchill gave in the Commons in the 1930s during his wilderness years, but they were ignored. Hopefully, Oren’s will not. Will Churchill’s “confirmed unteachability of mankind” remain true?