A predominantly one-topic blog: how is it that the most imminent and lethal implication for humankind - the fact that the doctrine of "Mutually Assured Destruction" will not work with Iran - is not being discussed in our media? Until it is recognized that MAD is dead, the Iranian threat will be treated as a threat only to Israel and not as the global threat which it in fact is.
A blog by Mladen Andrijasevic
Wednesday, April 3, 2013
Netanyahu may have to attack anyway. He may have no other choice.
James Woolsey now confirms what this blog has been saying all along...
On Monday, I met with James
Woolsey, the former Director of the Central Intelligence Agency. I’ve long been
impressed with Woolsey’s analysis of global trends, but had not previously
had the honor of meeting him. We spent about an hour in his Washington, D.C.
office, discussing the growing threats posed by Iran, Syria and North
Korea and how the U.S. should be handling them. I gave him a signed copy of Damascus
Countdown, and we spent some
time discussing the book and then various “worst case scenarios” I
may write about in future novels.
Woolsey was appointed CIA
Director by President Clinton and served from 1993 to 1995. Previously he had
served as Under Secretary of the Navy and as Ambassador and U.S.
Representative to the negotiations on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe.
Since leaving the CIA, Woolsey has continued to write and speak extensively on
national security and energy security issues. A self-described “Scoop Jackson”
Democrat — more conservative on foreign policy and military issues than
traditional liberals — he endorsed Senator John McCain’s presidential bid in
2008 and served as a foreign policy advisor to McCain.
Excerpts of our conversation:
Q: Do you think Israel will use
military force, and if so, how soon?
James Woolsey: The
problem is that the Israeli air force is one of the two best in the world, but
they are not big. We have the capacity to launch a sustained bombing campaign —
multiple sorties over many days or weeks — and really damage or completely
destroy Iran’s nuclear infrastructure. But a brief Israeli air strike won’t
suffice. It’s not like hitting the Osirik reactor in Iraq in 1981. It’s not
like the hitting the Syrian reactor that the North Koreans built in 2007.
This is what the U.S. should be
·Put four or five carriers in
the Persian Gulf and Indian Ocean region.
·Send B-52, B-1, and B-2 bombers
to Diego Garcia
·Stockpile our most effective
conventional earth-penetrating weapons in the Western Pacific or Indian Ocean
(Diego Garcia, Guam)
·Start running military
exercises in the Indian Ocean
·Don’t say anything publicly,
officially about what we’re doing – but let it be known through a well-timed
leak that what these forces are doing is preparing for is a sustained bombing
campaign to destroy everything they can reach that is related to Iran’s
Revolutionary Guards, everything they’ve got. Let it be known that, at much as
possible, we won’t target the Iranian people, their civilian infrastructure, or
their regular army. But we are going to destroy anything and everything related
to the Revolutionary Guards, starting with the nuclear facilities, but also the
factories they own, and their headquarters, and their bases, and Hezbollah in
·And then wait for a little bit
and see if the Iranian regime gives some ground.
I laid this out in an op-ed with Bud McFarlane a couple of
years ago. Of course, maybe it’s too late for that now. It’s definitely getting
Q: What if President Obama
won’t do this? He’s sending B-52s and Stealth bombers and others military
assets to South Korea and the Pacific to send a strong message to North Korea.
But he’s doing just the opposite with regards to Iran — pulling carrier battle
groups out of the Persian Gulf area, and so forth. So this brings us back to
Israel. Are you saying the Israelis don’t have the military capabilities to
neutralize the Iran nuclear threat?
concerned because I don’t think Israel can take out all of Iran’s nuclear
facilities using air strikes – some yes, but all? I don’t think so.
what does Netanyahu do? I ask that because my impression is that Netanyahu
brought in Ehud Barak, a long-time political rival, to serve as his Defense
Minister for the past four years precisely to lead the IDF into devising and
practicing and be preparing to execute a decisive plan to stop Iran from
getting the Bomb. And my impression is that Barak feels like he accomplished
that objective and stepped down feeling confident that he gave Netanyahu a
viable plan, should it become necessary to use.
may be right. Israel’s air assets are limited in numbers, but Netanyahu may have to attack
anyway. He may have no other choice. He can’t just sit there and do nothing. The
one thing that gives me a little bit of optimism is that Bibi and Barak are the
two most experienced men in the art of unconventional warfare serving in the
leadership of any country anywhere in the world. No other country has one Bibi,
or one Barak – much less both. These are men who understand how to defeat
an enemy using every trick in the book. And they may have something up their
sleeve, a plan that doesn’t simply involve attacking from the air. These two
guys are used to thinking about the art of war the way Sun Tzu told us to. I
don’t think they’d limit themselves to an airstrike or two.