Douglas
Murray understands that MAD is still
applicable only to those nuclear states which can be deterred, but that
everything should be done to prevent rogue states like Iran from getting
nuclear weapons. Kate Hudson apparently
lives in a parallel universe of wishful thinking. So much so that she believes
that Winston Churchill would back her arguments on disarmament, which is not
supported by this
speech Winston Churchill gave
in the House of Commons in 1955.
Monday, April 29, 2013
Thursday, April 25, 2013
Daniel Pipes: Iran deadline is not just the matter of months, but even weeks
Center for Security Policy, April 16, 2013
20 min 24 seconds into the video Daniel Pipes said:
Fifth. Talking about Iran, four more years have gone by, and now I can’t say nothing has happened, I do not know enough to say that, and there
could be all sorts of things going on below the surface, behind the screen, but
we are very close to a deadline. From what I understand from informed sources –
if we haven’t not done anything, or if the Israelis haven’t done anything by September,
the Iranians will have reached the point, crossed the red line, reached the
point of breakout, so it’s not just the matter of months, but even weeks before
the two governments face the choice of bomb or get the bomb.
Iran has crossed the nuclear red line set by Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, former Military Intelligence chief Maj.-Gen. (res.) Amos Yadlin announced on Tuesday.
Speaking at a Tel Aviv conference
held by the Institute for National Security Studies, which he heads, Yadlin
later clarified the remarks, saying, “If Iran continues to enrich uranium at
its current rate, toward the end of the year it will cross the red line in a
clear manner.”
Earlier, the former army
intelligence head said, “Despite all of the attempts made to stop the nuclear
program, no one is able to stop the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program.”
Tuesday’s
comments are in line with an assessment made by Yadlin in February, when he
said that, at its current rate of uranium enrichment, the Islamic Republic
would reach nuclear breakout capacity between June and August.
Netanyahu has defined Israel’s
red line regarding Iran as the possession of 250 kg. of uranium enriched to the
20 percent level, known as medium-enriched uranium.
According to an International
Atomic Energy Agency report released in February, Tehran has not crossed that
point, but has already amassed 167 kg. of uranium enriched to that level.
“By the summer, Iran will be a
month or two away from a decision about the bomb,” Yadlin said at the INSS
conference, adding that the decision whether to advance beyond that will be
made after Iran’s presidential elections in June.
Once Iran amasses sufficient
enriched uranium, “it will be very hard to stop,” Yadlin said. “If the US, Iran
and Israel all stand behind their announcements, then we are on a collision
course toward the end of the year.”
According to the former Military
Intelligence head, Tehran already has enough low-enriched uranium for six
bombs, and nearly enough medium-enriched uranium for one bomb.
“They have no problem converting
back what they allegedly turned to nuclear fuel. Within a week, it could be
turned into nuclear material for a bomb,” he warned, referring to Iran’s
decision in 2012 to reduce international tensions by converting some of its
enriched uranium to fuel rods.
In reality, Yadlin told Channel
2, the uranium was not converted to fuel rods, but rather, to uranium oxide,
which is easy to turn back to nuclear material, a process that can be completed
within a week, he said.
In
London last week, Netanyahu told the BBC that Iran has crept up to the red line
for the production of a nuclear weapon – which he dramatically referenced when
he held up a diagram of a bomb as he spoke at the United Nations General
Assembly opening session in the fall – but has not crossed it. He explained
that Iran was 80 kg.
Thursday, April 18, 2013
Is there a limit to human stupidity?
Thomas Pickering, Lee
Hamilton, General Michael Hayden among former top officials who back report
claiming US policies 'may have narrowed the options for dealing with Iran by
hardening the regime's resistance to pressure'
Yitzhak Benhorin
|
WASHINGTON
- A
panel of former senior American officials and outside experts
expressed their support on Thursday for a document which calls on President
Barack Obama to
reconsider the harsh economic sanctions imposed on Iran.
The
report, published by a panel called the Iran Project, said US policies
"may have slowed but they have not stopped the advancement of Iran's
nuclear program. They have not led to a breakthrough in nuclear talks
(sanctions have weakened Iran's economy but not yet led to changed policies or
actions); nor have they improved Iran's human rights practices."
According
to the paper, titled "Strategic options for Iran: Balancing pressure with
diplomacy," US policies "may have narrowed the options for dealing
with Iran by hardening the regime's resistance to pressure… After 30 years of
sanctioning and trying to isolate Iran, it seems doubtful that pressure alone
will change the decision of Iran's leaders… A strengthened diplomatic track
that includes the promise of sanctions relief in exchange for verifiable
cooperation could help to end the standoff and produce a nuclear deal."
'Balance
has been misaligned.' Military procession in Iran (Photo: AFP)
The
former officials, including several who recently left the Obama administration,
said in the letter of support that they "applaud the drafters of this
paper and their goal of contributing an objective, nonpartisan analysis to a
complex and important policy discussion." However, they stressed they
"do not necessarily agree with every word in this properly detailed and
balanced report."
Among
those who signed the letter of support are Thomas Pickering, one of the most
revered ambassadors in the history of US diplomacy; former Congressman Lee
Hamilton, who served as the vice chairman of the 9/11 Commission; General Michael
Hayden, who headed the CIA during George W. Bush's presidency; and former
Republican senator Richard Lugar.
Pickering,
who served as ambassador to Israel, among other countries, told the New
York Times "I fundamentally believe that the balance between sanctions and
diplomacy has been misaligned," and urged Obama to review the covert
program against Iran – which has included computer sabotage of its nuclear
facilities – to "stop anything that is peripheral, that is not buying us
much time" in slowing Iran’s progress.
State
Department spokeswoman Jen Psaki said in a statement that the administration
was sticking with its approach.
"We just completed a series of diplomatic talks"
with America's allies in dealing with Tehran, she said, "including three
recent rounds of meetings that included Iran." She added that a "dual
track approach of rigorous sanctions and serious negotiations is the right
approach. However, the onus is on Iran to take the next steps and move the
process forward."
Tuesday, April 16, 2013
Ya'alon: Israel may have to defend itself from Iran alone
When both the defense minister and the IDF chief of staff are
talking about attacking the Iranian nuclear facilities, it seems that my analysis from
2008 Facing
Iran, Alone might becoming reality
Iran is unimpressed with the West's steps against the Islamic
Republic's nuclear program so far, and Israel must prepare for the possibility
of striking the Iranian nuclear program on its own, Defense Minister Moshe
Ya'alon warned Tuesday, during an Independence Day speech he delivered to guests
at Herzliya.
Describing the Iranian nuclear
program as "the most significant" threat not only to Israel, but to
the Middle East and the "modern world," Ya'alon said Tehran's drive
for nuclear capabilities could end in disaster.
"It could spark an arms race in the Middle East, and cause
nuclear weapons to spread to terror organizations. This situation could be a
nightmare for the Western world," he warned.
"The world's response to the
Iranian nuclear program was delayed. The fact that centrifuges in Iran are
continuing to spin, and that enriched uranium has already been collected,
proves that the regime in Tehran is not impressed by these steps taken so far.
Even more so, the regime in Tehran does not identify determination in the
Western world to stop its nuclear project, and it therefore allows itself to
continue to develop it," the defense minister continued.
"Only by placing the Iranian
regime before the dilemma of having a bomb or [risking its] survival will lead
to the project being stopped.," he said.
"Only a significant increase in sanctions, international
isolation, assistance, as well as moral support to the repressed citizens of
Iran, and a credible military option, will convince the regime in Tehran that
its survival is preferable to the military nuclear project," he added.
Israel should not lead the
campaign against Iran, Ya'alon said, but Israel is the first target of the
Ayatollah regime, he added, citing threats by Iranian rulers to destroy Israel.
"The world must lead the
campaign against Iran, but Israel must prepare for the possibility that it will
have to defend itself with its own powers," he said.
"As someone who experienced
wars and lost friends, subordinates, commanders, and brothers in arms, I'm
convinced that using military power is the last resort. As the defense minister
of Israel, I must do all I can in my decisions to avoid sorrow and
bereavement... But we must be prepared to use military power if we must, and to
overcome our enemies sharply, clearly, and quickly." During his speech,
Ya'alon said that ins ome senses, "the War of Independence hasn't ended
yet. Security forces are facing, and will continue to face in the coming years,
challenges on various fronts, from near to far, along our borders, and in
states that are not close to us." Conventional military threats have
decreased, but terrorist organizations, rockets, missiles, and Iran remain a
threat, he said.
"The threats have only
changed, taken on a different form, [they're] evasive, slippery, uncurbed, and
can surprise and cause damages to Israel and its citizens." Hezbollah and
Hamas are armed with tens of thousands of rockets of different types, and on
the day they receive the order, "they'll fire them at our cities and
civilians. Although Hezbollah is busy these months with combat on behalf of the
regime of Basher al-Assad in Syria, it is ready for a conflict with Israel,
with Iranian and Syrian assistance," he added.
"Lebanese citizens and their
leaders must understand that for every Hezbollah attack on us, the organization
and Lebanon itself will be considered responsible and will pay the price,"
Ya'alon said.
The brutal Syrian civil war
presents security risks, but also opportunities, he added.
"The fact that Arab states
are busy with themselves and their survival... prevents them from focusing on
us," Ya'lon said.
Gantz:
IDF can attack Iran nuke sites on its own
The IDF has the ability to attack the Iranian nuclear sites
without help from other nations, IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Benny Gantz told
Israel Radio in a lengthy interview aired Tuesday.
When asked if the IDF has the
capabilities to attack alone in Iran, Gantz answered "unequivocally,
yes."
The Iranian challenge is a meaningful one. We must look at it strategically long-term. We will do what needs to be done, when it needs to be done," he said.
Gantz told Israel Radio that the
top political and military officials discussed a possible strike in Iran, but
denied reports that there were arguments on the topic. "There are long,
continuous discussions, and I presume we'll have more of those in the
future."
On the northern front, Gantz
assured that the IDF is ready for a possible military confrontation with Syria
and with Lebanon. "We are ready, at any given time, and in an immediate
manner, for a war with Syria, both on the defense and on the offense. I don't
see it happening tomorrow morning, but despite that we are ready."
On the southern front, Gantz
discussed the achievements of Operation Pillar of Defense last November,
saying the relative quiet that has been maintained since the ceasefire
agreement with Hamas at the end of the Operation is a testament to the
deterrence Israel established.
"There were several
isolated incidents lately that were made to appear more prominent because of
the relative quiet, and rightfully so. We have no intention to go back to the
situation that was before Pillar of Defense. If this quiet continues [and no
rockets are fired], there will be quiet in the Gaza Strip. If the quiet does
not continue, there will be no quiet in the Gaza Strip and it will be very
painful [for the Hamas leadership] and we will not be afraid to resume our
operations in the Strip and even extend them," he said.
"We must not forget that
the Hamas holds full and direct responsibility to everything that happens in
the Gaza Strip. If rockets are fired from [the Strip], it's either because
Hamas allows it or because it doesn't control the Strip. It is [Hamas']
responsibility and we will demand that of it," he added.
The chief of staff also said the
situation in the West Bank is not as grave as it was prior to the outburst of
the first and second intifada, and asserted he does not think a third intifada
is currently on the horizon. Regardless, Gantz assured that the IDF is ready
for any possible escalation.
Gantz also spoke at length about
the enlistment of haredim into army service, asserting that "in
principle, any citizen needs to serve their country" and promising the
process will be "gradually, evolving."
The chief of staff also stressed
that the IDF needs any offered manpower to maintain the level of preparedness
of its soldiers and its reserve soldiers.
"There
are more fronts, more challenges. We need to be able to perform operational
duty, as well as be in the required level of readiness for any possible
escalation. We also need to allow our reserve soldiers to drill as required
and not just do operational duties. The more manpower we have, our response on
a day-to-day basis will be better," he explainedupdate, April 17, 2013
Members of the Senate
Foreign Relations Committee have adopted a resolution according to which the US
will support Israel in case it is compelled to take military action and
actualize its right to self defense in the face of an Iranian threat. The
resolution stipules Israel will enjoy diplomatic, economic and military aid.
It is not clear what the impact of the above resolution will be since foreign policy is in the hands of the President
Monday, April 8, 2013
We will never entrust others with our fate, not even the best of our friends
|
Recently, we have witnessed horrific acts of violence against the
elderly, including elderly Holocaust survivors. There is nothing that
contradicts Jewish heritage, the values of our country and basic human morality
more than this. We will not tolerate it, and I consider it my duty to apply the
full weight of the State and Government of Israel to make sure that the
culprits are severely punished. This was what I instructed. We are
committed to maintaining the dignity and safety of our elderly citizens in
general, and we have a special commitment to the welfare of Holocaust survivors
in particular. Today, the Government added resources for care, welfare and
medications for Holocaust survivors, and we will add as much as needed, with an
open heart.
Holocaust survivors are the symbol of our revival. They, who
witnessed the horrors of the Holocaust, deserve to spend their remaining days
in peace and tranquility. In the words of the Prophet Zachary: "Old
men and old women will once again sit in the streets of Jerusalem, each with
his staff in his hand in advanced age". In advanced age – in safety,
comfort and dignity.
Citizens of Israel,
In every generation, they rise up to destroy us. In every
generation, we must see ourselves as if we have survived the Holocaust and
founded this country. In every generation, we are committed to ensuring that there
will not be another Holocaust. During the time of the Holocaust, we were
unable to prevent the annihilation. Many failed to identify the danger in time,
and once they did, it was already too late. The trap was set; the trap
was sprung. The gates of this land were shut to Jewish refugees, as were
the gates of most countries, although not all, including those of the most
enlightened ones.
From that point, the path to eradicating our six million brothers
and sisters was easy. The hatred against Jews, which culminated in Nazi
Germany, the weakness of the Jews in exile and the impotence of the world's
nations – the combination of these three elements resulted in the tragedy of
the Holocaust. However, from the depths of darkness, the Jewish fate underwent
a major transformation. In the death camps and ghettos, in the Warsaw
ghetto – after which this square is named – Jewish history changed.
There, Jewish resistance was revived and the spirit of the Maccabees was
rediscovered. The flag of rebellion was raised once again. From
lows not known to man, Jewish youth mobilized their power of resistance and
their Jewish courage to fight back against the Nazi oppressor. The fact that
they were defeated does not diminish the magnitude of their heroism and the major
transformation they generated in the history of our people.
From defenseless victims, the protectors of the ghetto transformed
into valiant fighters, valiant fighters who paralyzed the German military for
nearly a month. Few against many, guns against tanks – for nearly a
month. The actual spirit of the Maccabees. Five years later, with that
same spirit – few against many – IDF soldiers, among them many Holocaust
survivors, defeated the Arab armies that had arrived to wipe out the fledgling
State of Israel and the remaining survivors of the Holocaust. The Jewish
revival is inextricably linked to the willingness and ability of the Jews to
wage an uncompromising battle against those who sought to destroy them. Our
ability and willingness to defend ourselves is what enabled the establishment
of the Zionist enterprise and what guarantees our continued existence and
future.
Several days ago I bid farewell to a young Lieutenant-Colonel who
served in the military secretariat of the Prime Minister's Bureau. He is
going to the Negev to train future IDF commanders at the officers'
academy. I was very moved when, at the farewell ceremony, he told the
story of his grandmother Hanna. Hanna is a survivor of Auschwitz. The
Nazis carved a number on Hanna's arm that ended with the digits 78. As
fate would have it, Hanna's ID card in the State of Israel also ends with the
digits 78. The death number which Hanna received at the Auschwitz death
camp was her life number in the State of Israel. Hanna, who is watching us
now, survived the Nazi inferno, immigrated to the Land of Israel. Her husband
fought in the War of Independence, and today, her grandson, an officer in the
Israel Defense Forces, is training our future commanders whose mission is to
ensure that we will live here forever.
Six million Jews perished in the valley of death of the Holocaust.
Today, for the first time since the establishment of the State, more than six
million Jews live in the State of Israel. You, the citizens of Israel,
are the testament to our victory. From the abyss of the Holocaust, we
climbed to the peak of Zion. From a deep pit, we rose to a
pinnacle.
This is our victory. It is our comfort and our pride – our
pride in the State of Israel, which is a beacon of enlightenment, progress and
freedom in the darkness which blights so much of our surroundings. One
needs only to look around. We see people fighting for the very right to live
and for the most basic human rights. One needs only to look around us to
understand the enormity of the achievement of the State of Israel.
We are proud of the amazing things we have created here in 65
years of independence. We are proud of the great light emanating from
Zion, a light unto the people of Israel, a light unto the nations; a light of
progress, a light of prosperity, a light of a peace-seeking nation. I am
proud to be Prime Minister of this nation. However, there are those who
seek to extinguish this light of ours. Iran openly declares its intention
to destroy the State of Israel and employs all means to achieve this end.
"The Zionists", I am now quoting Iranian religious
leaders, "are germs and bacteria", "the Jews are filthy people
who spread disease". These statements were not only made then, they
are made now. "Israel", says the leader of Iran today, "is a
cancerous tumor which must be excised from the Middle East". The
murderous hatred for the Jewish people, which has accompanied our nation since
its inception, did not disappear from the world. It was simply replaced
by a murderous hatred for the Jewish state. What has changed since the
Holocaust is our determination and ability to defend ourselves by
ourselves.
We value the international community's efforts to curb Iran's
nuclear program, but we will never entrust others with our fate, not even the best
of our friends.
I have confidence in the strength of the State of Israel; I have
confidence in the Israel Defense Forces. I believe in you, Israel's
citizens. We are stronger now than we have ever been, and we can meet the
challenges ahead, as difficult as they may be. We have great strength
.
Two weeks ago, our friend, Rabbi Lau, spoke on this
mountain. As a child, he survived the death camps. He told the
story of a touching meeting he had last year with a retired American general.
The American general, who was one of the soldiers who liberated the death
camps, told Rabbi Lau with tears in his eyes: "I ask for your forgiveness.
We arrived too late". The most profound meaning of the establishment
of the State of Israel is this: we will never again be in a situation where it
is too late. We will never stand helpless against those who seek our
destruction.
Sixty five years ago, the Declaration of Independence granted us a
State and granted us the sovereign ability to make the necessary decisions that
will guarantee our future here. We will know how to act to defend
ourselves. In this place, on this day, I pledge: there will never be
another Holocaust.
Wednesday, April 3, 2013
Netanyahu may have to attack anyway. He may have no other choice.
James Woolsey now confirms what this blog has been saying all along...
Joel
C. Rosenberg interviews former CIA Director James Woolsey
Joel
C. Rosenberg interviews former CIA Director James Woolsey
On Monday, I met with James
Woolsey, the former Director of the Central Intelligence Agency. I’ve long been
impressed with Woolsey’s analysis of global trends, but had not previously
had the honor of meeting him. We spent about an hour in his Washington, D.C.
office, discussing the growing threats posed by Iran, Syria and North
Korea and how the U.S. should be handling them. I gave him a signed copy of Damascus
Countdown, and we spent some
time discussing the book and then various “worst case scenarios” I
may write about in future novels.
Most of our conversation was
off-the-record. But I took careful notes and Woolsey graciously agreed to allow
me to make some of his comments public. His analysis was particularly
interesting to me in light of yesterday’s headline in the Times of
Israel: “UN nuke chief fears Iran secretly working on a bomb:
Intelligence shows Tehran was and is involved in nuclear weapons project, says
International Atomic Energy Agency head Yukiya Amano.”
Woolsey was appointed CIA
Director by President Clinton and served from 1993 to 1995. Previously he had
served as Under Secretary of the Navy and as Ambassador and U.S.
Representative to the negotiations on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe.
Since leaving the CIA, Woolsey has continued to write and speak extensively on
national security and energy security issues. A self-described “Scoop Jackson”
Democrat — more conservative on foreign policy and military issues than
traditional liberals — he endorsed Senator John McCain’s presidential bid in
2008 and served as a foreign policy advisor to McCain.
Excerpts of our conversation:
Q: Do you think Israel will use
military force, and if so, how soon?
James Woolsey: The
problem is that the Israeli air force is one of the two best in the world, but
they are not big. We have the capacity to launch a sustained bombing campaign —
multiple sorties over many days or weeks — and really damage or completely
destroy Iran’s nuclear infrastructure. But a brief Israeli air strike won’t
suffice. It’s not like hitting the Osirik reactor in Iraq in 1981. It’s not
like the hitting the Syrian reactor that the North Koreans built in 2007.
This is what the U.S. should be
doing:
·
Put four or five carriers in
the Persian Gulf and Indian Ocean region.
·
Send B-52, B-1, and B-2 bombers
to Diego Garcia
·
Stockpile our most effective
conventional earth-penetrating weapons in the Western Pacific or Indian Ocean
(Diego Garcia, Guam)
·
Start running military
exercises in the Indian Ocean
·
Don’t say anything publicly,
officially about what we’re doing – but let it be known through a well-timed
leak that what these forces are doing is preparing for is a sustained bombing
campaign to destroy everything they can reach that is related to Iran’s
Revolutionary Guards, everything they’ve got. Let it be known that, at much as
possible, we won’t target the Iranian people, their civilian infrastructure, or
their regular army. But we are going to destroy anything and everything related
to the Revolutionary Guards, starting with the nuclear facilities, but also the
factories they own, and their headquarters, and their bases, and Hezbollah in
Lebanon.
·
And then wait for a little bit
and see if the Iranian regime gives some ground.
I laid this out in an op-ed with Bud McFarlane a couple of
years ago. Of course, maybe it’s too late for that now. It’s definitely getting
late.
Q: What if President Obama
won’t do this? He’s sending B-52s and Stealth bombers and others military
assets to South Korea and the Pacific to send a strong message to North Korea.
But he’s doing just the opposite with regards to Iran — pulling carrier battle
groups out of the Persian Gulf area, and so forth. So this brings us back to
Israel. Are you saying the Israelis don’t have the military capabilities to
neutralize the Iran nuclear threat?
Woolsey: I’m
concerned because I don’t think Israel can take out all of Iran’s nuclear
facilities using air strikes – some yes, but all? I don’t think so.
Q: Then
what does Netanyahu do? I ask that because my impression is that Netanyahu
brought in Ehud Barak, a long-time political rival, to serve as his Defense
Minister for the past four years precisely to lead the IDF into devising and
practicing and be preparing to execute a decisive plan to stop Iran from
getting the Bomb. And my impression is that Barak feels like he accomplished
that objective and stepped down feeling confident that he gave Netanyahu a
viable plan, should it become necessary to use.
Woolsey: You
may be right. Israel’s air assets are limited in numbers, but Netanyahu may have to attack
anyway. He may have no other choice. He can’t just sit there and do nothing. The
one thing that gives me a little bit of optimism is that Bibi and Barak are the
two most experienced men in the art of unconventional warfare serving in the
leadership of any country anywhere in the world. No other country has one Bibi,
or one Barak – much less both. These are men who understand how to defeat
an enemy using every trick in the book. And they may have something up their
sleeve, a plan that doesn’t simply involve attacking from the air. These two
guys are used to thinking about the art of war the way Sun Tzu told us to. I
don’t think they’d limit themselves to an airstrike or two.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)