The dangers have only become more acute in the decades
since I tried to convince Thatcher.
By
Mikhail Gorbachev
‘Deterrence cannot protect the world from a nuclear
blunder or nuclear terrorism,” George Shultz, William Perry and Sam Nunn
recently wrote. “Both become more likely when there is no sustained, meaningful
dialogue between Washington and Moscow.” I agree with them about the urgent
need for strategic engagement between the U.S. and Russia. I am also convinced
that nuclear deterrence, instead of protecting the world, is keeping it in
constant jeopardy.
I recall my heated discussions of this issue with Margaret Thatcher. We
argued about many things and often found common ground, but on this question
she fought to the last. Nuclear weapons, she insisted, prevented World War III.
I asked her: “Are you really comfortable
sitting on a nuclear powder keg?” I showed her a diagram representing the
world’s nuclear arsenals, grouped into hundreds of squares. Each square, I told
her, is enough to eliminate human civilization as we know it. I was unable to
persuade Margaret Thatcher. We hear the same arguments today, including in the
U.S. and Russia.
Yet nuclear weapons are like a rifle hanging on the wall
in a play written and staged by a person unknown. We do not know the
playwright’s intent. Nuclear weapons could go off because of a technical
failure, human error or computer error. The last alarms me the most. Computer
systems are now used everywhere. And how many times have computers and
electronics failed—in aviation, in industry, in various control systems?
Nuclear weapons might also be launched in response to a false alarm. If
the flight time of the missiles is reduced, leaving less time to detect a false
alarm, the probability of a mistaken retaliatory launch is bound to rise.
Nuclear weapons could fall into the hands of terrorists. And who knows
what other “surprises” these weapons have in store for us?
Those who believe nuclear weapons can save the world from war should
recall the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis. A dispute over the placement of Soviet
nuclear weapons put the world on the brink of war. Recently published documents
show how close the world came to the fateful line. It was not nuclear weapons
that saved the world, but the sobering up of the two countries’ leaders, John
F. Kennedy and Nikita Khrushchev. I am sure they thought long and hard, then
and afterward, and their perception of nuclear weapons changed a great deal.
What’s more, they reached agreement on ending nuclear tests in the
atmosphere, in outer space and under water, thus slowing the qualitative
weapons race as well as protecting the air from the deadly products of nuclear
explosions.
The opportunity to continue progress in nuclear arms control was then
squandered. The military-industrial complex won out over common sense. Only
much later, toward the end of the 1980s, were we able to stop the arms race.
Today, the U.S. and Russia are at a perilous crossroads. They must stop and
think. The veterans of the Cold War have spoken. It is now up to our nations’
leaders to act.
Mr. Gorbachev is former president of the Soviet Union.
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